On Fri, Sep 7, 2012 at 10:36 PM, PGage wrote: > On Sat, Sep 1, 2012 at 3:13 AM, PGage wrote: > >> Nate Silver ( >> http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/08/31/aug-31-tv-ratings-may-be-leading-indicator-of-convention-bounce/) >> has an interesting article on data he compiled in a regression analysis of >> TV ratings and the convention bounces enjoyed by the challenging candidate. >> He finds that 47% of the variance in bounces is predicted by TV ratings >> (bad news for Romney, the ratings were down this week). >> >> More interestingly to me, Silver's data shows that the three smallest >> challenger bounces since 1968 have been in the last three election cycles >> (2008, 2004 and 1998) > > I was going to this out (or the whole previous message and just post my thoughts), but there has to be a typo above. (No convention in 1998). Did you mean 2000, or 1996?
> - and four of the last five in the last 4 cycles (the exception was >> McGovern, who in 1972 got a smaller bounce than Dole in 1996 - this on >> McGovern's way to one of the biggest wipeouts in American political >> history). (SNIP) . . . . . >> > . . . .So now the numbers are in: The Democrats outdrew the Republicans on > each of the three nights (not all of the numbers are in the cited CBS > article, but I believe the blues out drew the reds by 15% to 17% each > night. Obama was significantly below his numbers from 4 years ago, but I am > sure that is typical (second acceptance speech vs first), not to mention > the special circumstances ( > http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-207_162-57508819/obama-beats-romney-in-nielsen-tv-ratings-of-conventions/ > ). > > Perhaps most surprisingly, the Democrats, behind Uncle Bill, out drew the > first night of NFL on NBC on Wednesday night (I thought for sure the NFL, > behind a NYC team, would crush the convention): > http://www.boston.com/ae/tv/2012/09/06/democratic-convention-beats-football-ratings/SuSijt4JFpNemn0SeAKaOL/story.html > > We will see by Monday if these higher ratings translate into a bigger > bounce - Nate is reporting that the early returns do project out to a 5 > point bounce (compared to around a 3 point bounce for Romney), but > emphasizes it is still way too soon to tell. > http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/09/07/sept-7-polls-find-hints-of-obama-convention-bounce/ > > Also of course the mediocre jobs report this morning took away a lot of > the afterglow for Obama on the morning news shows, which is probably where > a lot of Americans get their sense of what happened at the convention, so > that might eat away at the eventual bounce. > > This is preliminary, but according to what we're seeing out of Gallup, Reuters, and Rassmussen, Obama looks to be getting a bounce, whereas Romney did not. (With one arguing Romney may have actually achieved a *negative* bounce, somehow.) Romney and the Republican Party make have blown it (to use Andrew Sullivan's words... link below), perhaps to the point of making their convention be the *foreward* to the Democratic Convention rather than a challenge or a 'pre-buttal'. One theory, according to Sam Wang of Princeton (who argues Romney got a negative-bounce -- also see Sullivan link below), is that Romney sucked whatever bounce he could have gotten from the convention by announcing Paul Ryan as his running mate weeks ahead of the convention. This led to a week of glowing reports about the earnest, honest, intelligent wonk who would bring substance and intellectual heft to the campaign. This lasted up until Todd Akin demonstrated how American sex-ed failed him. This also coincided to the press changing her mind on how honest, and intelligent Paul Ryan really was, partly due to Ryan co-sponsoring abortion related bills with Akin, which seemed to be the excuse the press needed to fact-check everything else Ryan said, and hypocrisy-check everything Ryan did. Of course, Ryan did himself and Romney no favors by lying right during the RNC when the press was in the middle of 'fact-check-his-ass' mode. Eric Boehlert of Media Matters (a liberal media watchdog group) has tweeted that he has not seen any evidence of jobs numbers swaying the polls, so he didn't think they would now. (Link to tweets below)... Have the Conventions Changed the Race (Andrew Sullivan) http://goo.gl/80Xra Eric Boehler's tweets. http://goo.gl/4JnAx http://goo.gl/U2Qlq http://goo.gl/swjAn -- Wesley McGee http://www.ambivi.com http://sterlingnorth.vox.com http://drawing-a-blank.tumblr.com Twitter: @westwit G+: http://plus.google.com/113413697748381364954 Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/wesleymcgee -- TV or Not TV .... The Smartest (TV) People! You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "TV or Not TV" group. To post to this group, send email to [email protected] To unsubscribe from this group, send email to [email protected] For more options, visit this group at http://groups.google.com/group/tvornottv?hl=en
