FWIW, I now have what I think is a more clear theory as to why the video
made a difference to the NFL in terms of Rice's penalty. Nothing new here,
just that things have come together for me better. This is long and will be
of no interest to most I suppose, but I post it here for the record in any
case. I am not labeling it off-topic, because I think this whole affair is
intimately intertwined with television and its impact on our culture.

As we discussed on this thread yesterday, NFL "reporters" (scare quotes
needed because often these guys are little more than stooges for the
league, and have about the same relationship to the NFL that many Fox News
on air employees have to the Republican Party) are beginning to show signs
of a backbone, calling bull shit more or less on the NFL's denials that
they ever saw the elevator video. Deadspin has a nice summary of that here:

http://deadspin.com/espners-are-pissed-at-the-nfl-over-its-ray-rice-video-c-1632424069


NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell was interviewed by Norah O'Donnell, and
portions aired on the CBS Evening News yesterday - see here:

http://deadspin.com/roger-goodell-no-one-in-the-nfl-viewed-ray-rice-tape-1632715561?utm_source=digg&utm_medium=email

It is quite possible that Goodell is incorrect when he says nobody at the
NFL saw the video (and I don't rule out the possibility that he is straight
out lying). The NFL "Insiders" reported months ago not only that their
sources told them that the NFL had seen the video, but were able to report
from their sources (very accurately we now know for a fact) what was
depicted in the elevator video. One of these Insider reporters has now gone
so far as to identify her source as a "league source" - which has always
been implied by all of these people, but as far as I know this is the first
explicit attribution. So we now know beyond doubt that the league has known
what was in that elevator video for months.

If we want to assume that Goodell is not technically lying, then I think
this is probably what happened:

As we know, Goodell and other league officials met (horrifically and
outrageously) with Ray Rice, his lawyer, and Janay Rice (the victim). At
this meeting Ray was very apologetic, but also indicated that what was not
apparent from the parking garage video is that Janay had provoked and
started the violence with her words, and by spitting at him and (I think
some reports include this) slapping him. What apparently was definitive for
Goodell is that Janay, at this meeting, confirmed and repeated everything
that Ray said. All the powerful men in that room concluded that Ray was
being unfairly depicted as a bad guy, that he was just defending himself,
maybe got a little carried away, and the injury that led to her loss of
consciousness was more of an unfortunate accident than a physical assault.
The NFL did make pro forma requests for the elevator videotape, but at the
top level did not really push for it very hard (evidenced by all the
keystone kops absurdity we are seeing in their responses about this - see
Olbermann on this from yesterday). However it seems likely that somewhat
lower level league officials did either see the elevator video themselves,
or (and I think this is most likely) had that video described to them by
someone who did see it. This person represented to the higher ups that the
elevator video was consistent with the story the Rices had told, and then,
to bolster the league when giving background to the "Insiders", this league
source seems to have exaggerated the truth (otherwise known as lied) by
telling them they had actually seen the video, when probably they had just
had it described to them.

The elevator video does seem to show that Janay spit at Ray, and maybe
slapped or tried to slap him. However it is painfully clear when actually
watching the videotape that Ray's response can not in any way be
characterized as self-defense, nor her injury as an accident. He hits her
twice, once a full roundhouse punch to the jaw. Maybe it was the rail her
head hit with the great force of his punch that led directly to her loss of
consciousness, but it also looks like the force of the punch itself was
fully capable of rendering her unconscious alone. When Goodell and
associates at the league, and the Ravens (who had been told the same story
by Ray and Janay) saw this video, they felt lied to because the Rice's
generic description of what happened inside the elevator, while not
technically incorrect, left out so many important details that it was
essentially dishonest. This last is important because it probably provides
the justification for what otherwise seems like an over-reaction following
the initial under-reaction. Rice's indefinite suspension is in excess of
what the brand new policy on Domestic Abuse that Goodell is so proud of
would seem to call for (6 games). While the league has not clarified this,
Dan Patrick and others (at least yesterday, I don't know what they are
saying today) have speculated that the larger suspension is based not on
the domestic violence seen in the video, but the evidence it provides that
Rice lied to the NFL about the incident earlier.

Aside from the fact that even taking the Rices' at their word the behavior
called for a more serious response, what is lost on Goodell and a big part
of the NFL establishment is that the main problem here is not that Ray and
Janay lied (or misrepresented) the incident to them, but that they were
stupid and callous enough to take them at their word (and, even worse, to
interview her with him and his lawyer present, without insisting on a
separate interview, with her own lawyer looking after just her interests,
and perhaps some kind of domestic violence expert or advocate present). The
social welfare, mental health and criminal justice communities learned
decades ago how tragic these kinds of mistakes are; I remember a case from
as recently as the late 1980s that I was involved in after the fact when a
wife, questioned in her husband's presence by the police, swore up and down
very convincingly that he had not ever hurt her, and was then killed by him
that night in what a post-mortem proved was only the last in a long series
of brutal physical attacks. If the NFL had talked with any expert in this
field for even 2 minutes they would have been told specifically not to
interview the Rices together. And by experts here I do not just mean
touchy-feely social worker types, but also anyone work works for any law
enforcement agency that has regular contact with domestic incidents.

This is why this is more than just a game of "Gotcha" with the NFL (though
that game has its own merits). It is essential that the NFL and the other
major sports organizations, professional, amateur and college, learn from
this and never again make this mistake (though again, this deep into the
21st century, it is inexcusable that they needed this incident to learn a
lesson that has been well known for decades). I am prepared to assume that
even as great an asshole as Roger Goodell would not have whitewashed Ray
Rice if he realized what actually happened in that elevator. His failure,
which borders on criminal and is clearly immoral, was the deference he
showed to the accused assaulter, and his inability to imagine the most
obvious scenario from knowing the facts that one of his professional
football players had to drag his unconscious girlfriend out of an elevator,
and admitted that he struck her, and that this led to her injury. While it
is certainly possible to imagine some Rube Goldberg sequence in which an
innocent act by Ray led to Janay lying unconscious on the elevator floor,
only a monster presumes that scenario as truth and shows no real interest
in investigating it.

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