Responding to both Joe and Adam's comments on Trump. Joe noted that Trump exposes a rare disconnect between the interests of FN and the RNC. I agree that it is not the norm, though maybe not quite as rare as Joe suggests; the mainline Republican Party has never been all that happy with the airplay FN gave the Tea Party in its hey day, but FN's real money demo is not the Wall Street Journal crowd, or even the Chamber of Commerce Crowd, which together have been two thirds of the modern Republican Party. FNC's sweet spot has always been the more populist, angry, disaffected rural, southern and southern-ish nativists that have provided the margin of victory in most of the GOP's presidential victories since Richard Nixon. This is the Sarah Palin crowd, and the Ted Cruz crowd. Trump is appealing to them - though, more interesting to me than the split with mainline Republicans is how Trump splits these hardliners from fundamentalist Christians. The most important part of the story out of Iowa this weekend was how Trump either doesn't know how, or doesn't care about, the traditional Christian code language and dog whistles. That, and not his racism or veteran-bashing, is what is quashing his mellow among a big part of the Republican rank and file.
The RNC has an ambivalent relationship with FN - they are happy to use them to heat up the passions of the shock troops on the ground, but are always worried they will go too far, either fouling the Republican brand for moderates, or turning the true believers against Republican incumbents deemed to be part of the problem for their years of compromising and, well, governing. All of which to say I agree with Joe that Trump does a good job of illustrating these fissures in what liberals often assume is a solid conspiracy. Joe and Adam both commented on the role Trump's wealth will play on the race. While I think Joe is right that Trump's wealth allows him the option to stay in the campaign long after the point that inevitable gaffes and blemishes forced (and will force) the other clowns off the train when the fund raising dries up, I think Adam is on to why Trump is unlikely to choose to stay all that much longer. First, as Adam notes, there is a limit on how much of his own money it would be prudent for him to spend. This limit may be higher than Adam assumes though, because Trump is profiting both in personal PR (and he literally has valued his "brand" in the billions) and because he has been able to game the FEC financial disclosure rules to make himself appear to be worth more than he actually is (which may just be narcissistically valuable, but also may have some actual value as he conducts his various business negotiations. As the Washington Post noted last week, Trump is almost certainly not worth the $9 (or $10!) Billion he claims in his FEC filings. On those forms, the highest category they list for assets is "over $50 Million" - so Trump is free to claim that various assets are worth billions, but only has to be able to prove they are worth $50 Million + 1 dollar to be kosher with the FEC. The large share of his wealth is in real estate, the value of which is always subject to some debate - indeed, just claiming a particular address is worth $1 Billion and having it published in the NYT probably actually raises its value - and is most likely the real reason he is in the race in the first place. By the New Hampshire or South Carolina Primary, I expect Jeb Bush to have a lock on the Republican nomination, or at least enough of a hold on it that it will be obvious that Trump can not win. I doubt we will see him in the GOP much after that - unless (2 scenarios)... 1. He wins enough delegates to demand influence and prime time at the Convention; he is enough of a wildcard that he may fund himself enough to make it to the summer - and if he is at that point, he will probably be able to portray himself as the populist voice of the right wing crazies, and the GOP mainstream may be afraid enough of pissing them off to give him convention time. 2. He realizes by late February that he has no chance, and decides to run a third party campaign. In this case he could mostly shut down his paid campaign, use free media to keep his name alive all spring, then hold his own nominating convention in one of his own hotels over the summer. He would also be free then to spend his own money in targeted states where he has enough of a following to alter the outcome. This would make the GOP shit bricks (and is why I am happy Bernie is not a Billionaire, or we democrats might be having the same problem). I do think both #1 and #2 are unlikely. Four years ago we say a progression of right wing nuts shuffle through the polls, usually ahead of Romney - yet at no time was there ever any real danger of anyone but Romney winning the nomination. It is not quite as sewn up this time, as Jeb has to prove Bush-Fatigue is at least no stronger than Clinton-Fatigue, and that he can give the necessary reach-arounds to the fundamentalists without losing his perception as a moderate. I suspect he will be able to do both of those though, and while Trump, and then Rubio, and then Cruz and however else may have their day in the sun, when things get serious the grown ups will take over. On Tue, Jul 21, 2015 at 4:41 PM, Adam Bowie <a...@adambowie.co.uk> wrote: > An interesting take on Trump. > > The only bit I wonder about is his funding. Yes, he claims he's worth > billions. But can he get his hands on that as cash? And more to the point, > is he actually willing to spend his own money on his campaign? > > I'm not too sure. I think he's more in the Richard Branson style of > billionaire - he doesn't spend his own money. He uses his name to get > partners who stump up most of the cash for his projects, and put his name > on those projects. But he's not actually investing much - if any - of his > own cash. > > It's a bit like why movie stars don't bankroll their own films. They > could. But they know that's the first rule of Hollywood. You don't pay > yourself. And I reckon that unlike other billionaires who are willing to > spend their own dollar, he's not. We'll see... > > > Adam > > On Tue, Jul 21, 2015 at 11:08 PM, Joe Hass <hassgoc...@gmail.com> wrote: > >> I wanted to pull this out of the Gutfield thread because it's >> tangentially related, but worth noting. >> >> I generally agree with PGage that we're very much in clown car stage, so >> everything at this point is just news filler. >> >> But there are two really important things to remember about Trump as it >> relates to this board: >> >> For the first time in memory (if ever), the Republican National Committee >> and Fox News Channel are in completely different worlds, and it's all about >> how to handle Donald Trump. Because Trump draws eyeballs, and at the end of >> the day, FNC is about eyeballs. If Trump is one or two in the polls right >> now, he is red meat to FNC's viewership (which is even further right than >> what the RNC is, much less wants). The Onion Op-Ed is spectacularly right: >> "Admit It: You People Want To See How Far This Goes, Don’t You?" ( >> http://www.theonion.com/blogpost/admit-it-you-people-want-see-how-far-goes-dont-you-50895). >> And don't think FNC won't take every single Trump event, much to the RNC's >> permanent consternation. There's absolutely no way he's not on the stage at >> the first debate. And trust me: we're all gonna either watch it or the >> highlights the next morning. >> >> The second is a little more roundabout. Fundamentally, what sinks >> candidates is what floats 'em: cash. Specifically, their ability to raise >> it. And at this moment, Trump could literally spend a billion dollars >> without raising one penny from a Super Pac, the RNC...you name it. He wants >> to insult Mexicans? Take cracks at John McCain? Guess how much that'll >> affect his fundraising? It won't, because he doesn't have to! When Trump >> actually decides to launch a media campaign, those commercials are going to >> be spectacular! Doesn't matter how you define "spectacular". You know it. I >> know it. >> >> Everyone can laugh in July, 2015. But why do I have this feeling we're >> still gonna be laughing in February, 2016? >> >> -- >> -- >> TV or Not TV .... 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