The Chinese government reported that 1,700 health care workers have contracted the virus, and 6 have died. That is a mortality rate of 0.4%. It is about 4 times higher than ordinary flu. I think this is a reliable estimate because they probably keep close track of health care workers, and they probably give them the best treatment available. This is probably the best estimate of mortality we have so far.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/0…ia/china-coronavirus.html Projecting that to the U.S.: in the U.S., ordinary influenza kills 12,000 to 61,000 per year, depending on how virulent it is. (How widespread it becomes.) The Wuhan flu appears to be very virulent, based on what has happened in Japan. So, a 0.4% mortality rate would kill approximately 61,000 * 4 = 244,000. But, you have to increase that by about 40%. In the U.S., ~40% of adults get a flu shot, so they are nearly all immune. There is no flu shot for Wuhan flu, so roughly 40% more people will get it. That's another 98,000 deaths, around 342,000 total. That would be one of the worst epidemics in U.S. history. In absolute numbers, it would be about half the deaths of the Civil War, the worst war in U.S. history. It would also be an economic and social disaster, as it already is in China.
