The other side of this is that the severe cases with treatment can often be prevented from turning into fatalities. But, when this wipes out the ability to get any medical help, the death rate is going to go a lot closer to the rate of severe cases.
And that is a much much higher percentage than those who die. In Wuhan according to China's own figures the percentage killed by the Virus is 4% because of just this reality, and it could go higher or already be higher. On Wed, Feb 19, 2020 at 9:20 AM Jed Rothwell <jedrothw...@gmail.com> wrote: > > Jürg Wyttenbach <ju...@datamart.ch> wrote: > >> But mortality is 2,3% for confirmed severe cases only not for the >> >> average infected ones. This, so far, looks like being well below >> influenza. > > > I do not think so. I believe the 2.3% projection is for all cases, but I > agree it is probably too high. Because uncounted infections are more > prevalent than uncounted or misattributed deaths. > > Influenza is 0.1%. There is no way this is "well below" that. At least 1,770 > people have died. If the rate is 0.1%, that means 1.8 million people have > been infected. That is implausible. They say there are 71,000 cases. > > The NY Times says: > > "An analysis of 44,672 coronavirus patients in China whose diagnoses were > confirmed by laboratory testing has found that 1,023 had died by Feb. 11, > which suggests a fatality rate of 2.3 percent." > > > I doubt all 44,672 of those cases were severe. That would be very badly done > epidemiology. The people doing the study will try to find a representative > sample of patients, from mild to severe. As you see, the sample includes most > of the known patients and deaths on record. >
