On Monday 16 October 2006 16:25, OrionWorks wrote:
> Jed sez:
> > Steven Vincent Johnson wrote:
> > >It would appear that North Korea has demonstrated to the world
> >
> > that it can detonate a nuclear bomb.
> >
> > I still doubt it.
> >
> > Anyway, Kim will not live forever, and nations like North Korea
> > seldom last for long, so I do not think it matters much. The lesson
> > of the cold war is that it is often best to do nothing provocative,
> > stand your ground, and wait for things to improve. People tend to
> > exaggerate the gravity of these "crises," as they are called before
> > everyone forgets they happened. The U.S. did not go to war over the
> > Quemoy and Matsu "crisis" in 1954, and yet we survived. The U.S. did
> > go to war over the Tonkin Gulf attack and the Iraqi WMD crisis, but
> > both events turned out to be fabricated, and responding to them on
> > this scale was a mistake, to put it mildly.
> >
> > - Jed
>
> While no one lives forever they tend to possess the irritating
> characteristic of living long enough to create consequences that the
> "survived by" will have to deal with.
>
> Jed, I pretty much agree in principal with your assessment of the
> situation. I would also add that the last thing Kim wants is to be ignored.
> The more we engage with Kim's regime (in the 1st person) the more
> legitimate he is likely to feel his regime is being perceived by the rest
> of the world.
>
> OTOH, if Kim manages to successfully sell nuclear material to rogue
> organizations we will have a lot to "deal" with. It's my understanding that
> the science of being able to identify where nuclear material had been
> manufactured is a precise process. There would be no doubt as to who was
> responsible for the source. It is pretty much understood by all parties
> involved that if any clearly identifiable N. Korean nuclear material were
> to be used in some nefarious way by a 3rd party it would spell the end of
> Kim's regime - big time.
>
> People scratch their heads wondering why Kim might even consider selling
> nuclear material to rogue organizations if it is clearly understood that
> the source would quickly be traced back to his country - with disaterous
> consequences to his regime's health. But then, who really knows what Kim is
> thinking. FWIW: The most interesting speculation I've heard (and it IS pure
> speculation I might add since I have no hard evidence to back it up) is
> that Kim's political decisions indicate there may be a streak of martyrdom
> in his psychological makeup. If so, all the more reason to tread carefully.
> A cornered, wild, starving animal is not likely to feel that it has many
> viable options left.
>
> Regards,
> Steven Vincent Johnson
> www.Orionworks.com
> www.Zazzle.com/orionworks
Cornered animals do fight, and crazed animals fight with a wild
desparation
that knows no bounds. Kooky Kim has a long history of secret collaborations
with the rich and infamous in the PRC as well, and could take some of them
down with him if he saw himself falling. Some of those who promised him
troops and supplies in the past are perhaps seeing the unfeathering of their
nests and might seek changes in China's leadership. Inasmuch as these may
BE China's leadership would explain the extra caution and reluctance to act
that could be explained by duplicity. Sun Tsu stated that all things had a
rational source, so some explanation must exist to make seemingly irrational
acts rational in the end.
In the early nineties of the last century, there were secret arrangements
made by representatives of the DPRK leadership and senior leadership in the
Chinese Army PRC concerning 'triggers' for re-supply and coordinated
responses. Whole PRC Army Groups were mobilized to readiness condition in
Schenzhen Province in the mid nineties, and ominous unidentified massive
increases in the male population totalling over six million people in the
DPRK occured in the early nineties lending one to suppose
the whole 'crisis' was manufactured with the west being intended victim of an
enormous ambush. Mr Clinton perhaps saw this trap for what it was and found
a diplomatic solution. Perhaps also at that time China PRC was not yet ready
for a fight.
At present Kim may not percieve time on his side. His country is six
hundred thousand tons short of vitally needed foodstuffs at a time when
contributions have dried up. He even told the United Nations to stop
shipping food, saying it was not needed; this a seeminly irrational act.
Why would he say this in the face of imminent starvation of millions in
his country this winter. The only reason he would not need it would be if
a large part of his population ceased to need to consume. And the little boy
who never tasted power until his father died has now 'found his father's gun'!
Say he does sell some of his klutzy hardware to some militants who then
decide to target some population center. This center does not, as many
Americans believe, have to be an American interest or city. Militants have
many targets in the world, and North Korean influenced and supplied militants
may well have their sights set on Japanese cities instead of American ones.
The new surrogates, say, actually hit a city or some other target! What
then? Who do we target in return? Or maybe then the next shoe drops,
and we are threatened with a major war involving a large eastern power
with over a billion population if we dare retaliate, whilst Kim gloats.
And plots his next target. It has happened before. It was called Viet-Nam.
