Terry Blanton wrote:
Tesla is first to market and is getting the worm.
Maybe not. Lots of computer companies beat IBM to the personal
computer market, such as Cromemco and Northstar. See:
http://www.old-computers.com
Tesla is hoping to open a niche market selling to wealthy people.
Some of the early personal computers tried this approach, not very
successfully. In the end it was the geek market, assemble-it-yourself
people jump-started the market.
For an electric vehicle, rather than look for wealthy people, I think
it is a better idea to sell to a commercial niche market. In the case
of electric vehicles, that would be something like a short-distance
delivery service. Not sure there are many of them. A taxi service
would not be suitable, because taxies go long distances and they do
not return to base after every trip. Think pizza delivery.
Unfortunately, pizza shops operate on razor thin margins. Perhaps a
national chain such as Poppa John's could buy a few hundred electric vehicles.
There used to be many document delivery services but the Internet put
most of them out of business. My favorite was "Sooner Or Later
Delivery Service" in Atlanta, circa 1980.
But soon, everyone will be "in the pool" and you'll see $15K electrics
in six years.
In 2 years Japanese companies will be selling them for $25,000. They
will not be as impressive as the Tesla, but a lot more practical, I
expect. See:
http://evworld.com/news.cfm?newsid=21265
"Mitsubishi Aims to Cut i-MiEV Costs By Mid-2010s
Source: Bloomberg
Class: SYNDICATED NEWS
SYNOPSIS: The company is also planning a plug-in hybrid version by 2013.
Mitsubishi Motors Corp., the maker of the i MiEV electric car, plans
to cut the vehicle's purchase price by more than half to less than 2
million yen ($21,000) as government incentives and tighter emission
rules boost demand for fuel-efficient cars.
The company will cut the i MiEV's price tag by the "mid- 2010s,"
President Osamu Masuko said at the company's annual shareholders'
meeting in Tokyo. The price target includes tax breaks and subsidies
from the government, he added. The carmaker will start selling the i
MiEV in July for 4.6 million yen . . ."
evworld.com and others have been talking about electric vehicles for
years. Lots of startups have come and gone. It is very tough business to crack.
- Jed
