The "missing honesty" phenomenon
On Wed, 16 Dec 2009, Jed Rothwell wrote: > I would like to caution readers that this argument by Stephen A. Lawrence is > logically invalid: > > Looking like a scammer is not good when you're trying to lure investors. > > > > Really talented con men show you everything, and convince you it means > > something other than what it really means. > > > That cannot be falsified. You're talking about science, not really about logic, which assumes honesty on the part of all players. If the presence of con men has significant probability, you're not doing science anymore. And logic becomes fairly useless, since every single input to equations is not to be trusted. If every part of claims, evidence, reasoning, rules, etc. very probably is composed of carefully-crafted lies, and the liars are smarter and more psychologically sophisticated than we are, then we can't trust evidence coming from that source. I say the same thing Stephen is apparently saying: WHERE F-E DEVICES ARE CONCERNED, DON'T TRUST THE INVENTORS' EVIDENCE. Assume that you're dealing with a very intelligent version of Dennis Lee or Joe Newman. They're guilty until proven innocent. Distrust everything they say. Distrust even that any statement is a guaranteed lie, since telling the truth at the right moment often pays. In that case, what are our options? Simple. Same as they ever were. Cut the evidence loose from the probable-contaminated source. Give us an operating Orbo. Or better yet, get it working, then leave the building and let us mess with it. Scammers can never do this. As long as Steorn refuses to do this, they are possible scammers, possibly innocent. They *avoid judgement*, they keep themselves in the fuzzy realm. They never stick one big toe out of the fuzz. They remain impossible-to-judge. Nothing ever happens that lets us settle the issue. Why? Obviously someone has to produce this situation. It's very probably not an accident. Suppose we can't find solid evidence of dishonesty. So instead search for evidence of honesty. If it's a scammer, we won't find it. Their statements could be true, or could be deceptive rhetoric and sophistry, but we're never sure. We give them the benefit of the doubt over and over and over. We can never catch them in a lie and reliably decide they're scammers, but we don't hear an obvious truth either. That's the sign. With honest people, this fuzz/smoke/impossible-to- judge-them stuff is missing. With honest companies, we don't have to give them the benefit of the doubt over and over continously without end. I've heard this effect described as "living in Oz." When you're dealing with a profoundly dishonest person, you're now living in Oz, where nothing is normal anymore, nothing is what it seems. It's the opposite of the simple clarity of an honest situation. Or think this way: if the scam is finally revealed; if Steorn principals suddenly vanish with all the investment money, or if they suddenly admit that it was all a mistake from the beginning ...won't everyone insist that Steorn displayed in great detail every bit of the behavior that scam companies have displayed again and again and again? Or contrarywise, if the device is finally proved real, everyone will wonder why Steorn so carefully in great detail reproduced the actions of someone running a scam. Why do that? It's just bizarre. More likely they're just con artists. If you were Steorn, you'd work day and night to avoid both of the above. You can't announce success, but you can't announce any type of permanent failure. So just be like all the other FE scammers; just keep researching. Never stop the work. Keep the money flowing, but let the situation slowly change. The first group of 'marks' might complain ...but there never will be a large group of them who all suddenly complains at the same time. Most important: GIVE REFUNDS. Only a small group will demand their money back. Keep "researching," that way nothing ever triggers a significant group of people to decide it's a con, and come after you. > By that standard it is impossible to distinguish > an honest inventor who is showing everything from a con-man who is only > pretending to show everything. Easy: remove the source of possible dishonesty: wide replication. Or at the very least, independent 3rd party testing. Con artists won't do either of these. But con artists have to avoid being found out. Therefore they have to maintain "sensible excuses" for lack of outside testing and replication. We hear the excuses, and we once again give them the benefit of the doubt. Don't listen to those excuses. An honest company wouldn't pull this crap, and wouldn't need those excuses. > Every step the inventor takes to bolster his bona fides also bolsters > the likelihood he is a con-man. Not at all. By publishing full information allowing replication? By building working copies and sending them out to universities? By selling the device as a child's toy? Only a con artist has to carefully take calculated steps which can *always* be interpreted both ways. Con artists *must* maintain the fuzz; must keep people from ever being able to make a simple prompt decision. The sign of a FE con isn't dishonesty, instead it's the lack of honest forthright behavior. An honest company acts totally different than Steorn, and instead cuts through the fuzz with a huge frik'n sword. > This reminds me a > little of the Soviet Union kangaroo court judges who claimed that protesting > your innocence merely proves you are guilty. Protesting your innocence DOES strongly suggest funny business. It's a "smokescreen" technique that an innocent person should avoid. Why not stop all the protesting, and instead *demonstrate* your innocence in many different ways? > Anyway, we have to put aside judgements of the people involved and look at > the technical issues only. That attitude works for non-scammer areas. But that attitude can be manipulated by con artists. We'll end up giving them the benefit of the doubt over and over again as they lead us around on a leash. For shady used car salesmen, don't drop your guard and "look at technical issues only." The flow of technical info is being manipulated by the salesman. Instead, take the car away overnight and check it out in detail. > Bear in mind that odd people sometimes make valid > claims. It happens a lot in cold fusion. The problem is not with *odd* people. The problem is with Steorn's constantly maintained smokescreen fuzz-effect. It's not the dishonesty that signs the same. It's their lack of honesty. Brutally self-honest people do not behave at all like Steorn does. Odd people don't either. Perhaps their oddness would occasionally overlap with "scammer behavior," but when the overlap is huge and continuing, the reek of a dead mouse in their basement means that there really is a dead mouse somewhere down there. How about this. Steorn says "here's why you can trust us: we won't take investor money until we've proved that our device is real." Aha. That's the opposite of scammer behavior. When I heard that, I started waiting for them to silently reverse that promise and offhandedly mention things like "all our investors." A couple of years later, that's exactly what happened. Remember that list I made of "how to recognize a FE scammer?" 14. The inventor makes one statement, then contradicts himself later. This string of lies may not be obvious, but is revealed by comparing various statements. A classic version is "The idea was given to me by god" ...followed later by "I must keep the invention a secret so idea-theives can't steal it." (Hmmm. If god has gifted mankind with the secret of free energy, why is this guy keeping it hidden, and worse, trying to make money off it?!! Gifts from god are supposed to CONTROLLED? And SOLD?!) For Steorn, the telling comparison is between their public demonstration of honesty by promising to not take investors, versus their taking investors (and no doubt hoping that everyone forgot their promise.) Oh, I guess we're supposed to give them the benefit of the doubt one more time, and assume that they innocently forgot their promise? If you were Steorn, would you forget such a thing? Absolutely not. (((((((((((((((((( ( ( ( ( (O) ) ) ) ) ))))))))))))))))))) William J. Beaty SCIENCE HOBBYIST website billb at amasci com http://amasci.com EE/programmer/sci-exhibits amateur science, hobby projects, sci fair Seattle, WA 206-762-3818 unusual phenomena, tesla coils, weird sci
