SUBJECT: Group seeks to discredit Rossi >From Abd:
... > But I will note a generic way to fake Rossi's > work, others have proposed other possibilities, > and, if it's fake, the truth might even be a > hybrid. I have no doubt but that it could be > done, that even more convincing demonstrations > could be done. But not independent replications, > and that is why we all want to see such, not > simply inventor-managed "demonstrations." > Independent replication can be done under > non-disclosure agreements that would protect > Rossi's commercial rights. But Rossi is not going > that way, which is his privilege. It is also our > privilege to ignore his work until we see something > more solid. I find myself in sympathy with many of the intertwiningly complex issues for which Abd has brought forth here. However, I think it is also appropriate that we do not lose sight of the fact that while there is indeed a time when independent replication must begin, there still exists a time... a crucial time period prior to when independent testing & replication ought to commence. That prior time period must be allowed to gestate at its own pace. Complicating matters, I suspect there comes a critical time when that gestation period must make an uneasy transition over to the next period when independent replication must ensure. If these two distinct crucial time periods get overly mixed up spectacular disasters can and do occur. Recall the tragic PR mess that transpired when scientists (most of them physicists) in their initial curiosity attempted to independently replicate a chemistry experiment, for which most had little experience in executing, the Pons & Fleischmann 1989 "cold fusion" experiment. As we all know, the vast majority of those preliminary "independent replications" failed. The result was a tragic history lesson on how NOT to conduct independent replication, a lesson that has taken decades to turgidly work its constipated way through the alimentary canal of pseudo science accusations. Looking back on those events we can see that to a very large extent that "independent replication" was premature. It was premature because the necessary protocols were not yet sufficiently understood by P&F. If they didn't know all the crucial details, could they accurately tell others what they must do? Exacerbating matters, physicists were attempting to perform delicate experiments within a field (chemistry) for which they were not trained in. JEE! WHAT COULD GO WRONG!!!! There were too many unknowns and variables that tended to mess things up. The uncertainties P&F secretly harbored quickly came back to haunt them. Due to a collection of unique political circumstances of that time period P&F felt they had no choice but to come out of the closet, so to speak, and (prematurely) reveal what they suspected was probably occurring. IOW, they speculated. Due to their own lack of adequate knowledge pertaining of certain experimental factors some of their speculations turned out to be premature, as well as I gather inaccurate. Some of these unfounded speculations ended up skewering them in the light of the scientific community. They could see the rusty blade coming at them, skewering them in slow motion - and there wasn't a damned thing they could do about the ensuing circus. Timing is everything. Historically speaking, I wonder what might have happened if the Wright Brothers had prematurely revealed blueprints to their prototype, prior to them having figured out how to get their unwieldy contraption off the ground without killing too many pilots. Through tedious trial and error, combined with countless wind tunnel experiments, the Wright brothers finally managed to accumulate a practical knowledge base as to the actual physics involved, particularly the complex aerodynamics that needed to be addressed in order to get their flying machine up into the air in a controlled fashion. It seems to me that it would have been highly, HIGHLY unlikely that had other individuals, having not acquired the same knowledge base that the Wrights had painstakingly accumulated, they would not have been able to successfully replicate the Wright Brother' blue prints to the degree necessary to achieve a reasonable probability of success. Most likely, they would not have understood countless subtle little details, details not necessarily obvious as described in the blue prints. More likely, many replicators, in their impatient enthusiasm to get something up in the air, would have ended up killing themselves resulting in lots of bad PR. The Wright Brothers would have been branded dangerous crack pots & quacks. Stay clear of them, and their dangerous machine designs! How much longer would it have taken the world to accept a brand new audacious paradigm that powered flight was feasible? Possibly decades later. ... > If Rossi is real, he is comprehensively shooting himself > in the foot. Obviously, Abd's expressed concerns have already been articulated by many within the Vort Collective. Many, particularly Jed, have vehemently questioned the wisdom of Rossi's purported business plans. In the final analysis, however, we can sit here and wine all we want about how we think Rossi ought to be going about executing his business because many of us feel his plans all totally f*cked up, but in the final analysis we are not Rossi. Under the circumstances, the best suggestion that I can think of is to continue to accumulate as much crucial information as we can pertaining to what is theorized to be happening so that if (and I sincerely mean "IF") something catastrophic happens to Rossi's business plan, resulting in his work becoming publicly discredited in pretty much the same fashion as what happened to P&F - there is at least a decent hope that independent research can proceed "untainted" at some obscure university or research facility where proper controls can be administered in a more controlled systematic way. PS: I've said this before but I'll say it again. IMO, Rossi could use a good handler, a PR professional who can help minimize the damage that occasionally occurs when he puts his foot in his mouth. "Ahem... what Rossi really meant to say was..." Regards Steven Vincent Johnson www.OrionWorks.com www.zazzle.com/orionworks
