OrionWorks - Steven Vincent Johnson <orionwo...@charter.net> wrote:
> A subtle point the above premise may have gotten completely wrong is the > fact that as automation takes over more and more jobs in traditional > manufacturing sectors it is NOT necessarily true that these misplaced > workers will end up being reemployed in various service sector areas of the > economy. The problem many politicians seem oblivious to and subsequently > refuse to acknowledge to their constituents is the fact that increasing > numbers of service sector jobs are ALSO ending up being automated. > Yes, the pace of progress has picked up. Progress in computers and robots was stalled for a long time. In the 1960s, some experts believed we might have something like the HAL computer portrayed in the movie "2001" by the year 2000. That did not happen. Many people went to the opposite extreme, saying that computers will never be able to translate, drive automobiles, or think in any sense of the word. Now we have effective translation and prototype antonymous automobiles (Google) and artificial intelligence in the Watson computer far ahead of what I expected a few years ago. I do not know the state of the art in robotics but I expect it will soon improve rapidly. This is bound to have a profound impact on all sectors of the economy. *All sectors* -- that's Johnson's point. The notion that we can go from manufacturing to service reminds me of Asimov's classic short story "The Last Question" which begins with two inebriated scientists arguing about entropy and the fate of the universe: ". . . What I say is that a sun won’t last forever. That’s all I’m saying. We’re safe for twenty billion years, but then what?" Lupov pointed a slightly shaky finger at the other. "And don’t say we’ll switch to another sun." There was silence for a while. Adell put his glass to his lips only occasionally, and Lupov’s eyes slowly closed. They rested. Then Lupov’s eyes snapped open. "You’re thinking we’ll switch to another sun when ours is done, aren’t you?" "I’m not thinking." "Sure you are. You’re weak on logic, that’s the trouble with you. You’re like the guy in the story who was caught in a sudden shower and who ran to a grove of trees and got under one. He wasn’t worried, you see, because he figured when one tree got wet through, he would just get under another one." "I get it," said Adell. "Don’t shout. When the sun is done, the other stars will be gone, too." - Jed
