At 09:57 AM 10/2/2012, fznidar...@aol.com wrote:
It has now been one year since Rossi's big demonstration. Products
were to come out at the end of last year, then in the Summer of
2012. Now its one year later and there is nothing. No products, no
independent tests by a reputable group.
I predict that even Jed will give up within the next five years.
My operating hypothesis with Rossi, aside from the minor possibility
of Total Fraud, is that he actually did find significant heat,
sometimes. He might even have had some cells that produced
significant heat for a long time, but that he had not actually
learned to control the reaction to make it reliable, and reliability
is crucial for a commercial product.
Inventors tend to believe that they can solve any problem. Some
inventors have been known to jump the gun, so to speak, to announce a
product before the last details are worked out. And then, needing to
demonstrate it, some inventors have been known to create exaggerated
demonstrations. ("After all, we'll have it fixed by next month.")
That there is some level of legitimacy to a need to keep the exact
invention secret provides a ready excuse.
What I've written here is only conjecture. It was, however, behind my
advice to the LENR community, when Rossi first made his big splash in
early 2011, to not endorse Rossi's work without independent
confirmation, because any failure to complete a commercial product
would then reflect poorly on the cold fusion community.
I would prefer to have been wrong.
I also warned that for Rossi to depend on secrecy to maintain his
intellectual property was foolish, it wouldn't work. Rossi may have
tacked onto this a deliberate creation of an appearance of fraud, in
an attempt to suppress independent attempts to find strong NiH effects.
Time will tell. A lot of people are now working openly on NiH. The
field has promise, though it is not "scientifically established":
with anything like the power of PdD LENR. It remains possible, at
this point, that some unidentified artifacts are creating an
appearance of excess heat.
On the other hand, if Storms is correct and the NiH product is
deuterium, I predict that the ash will be identified soon, within a
year or two. Demonstrating deuterium as ash could be as simple as
using seriously deuterium-depleted light water in the experiments,
and finding a correlation between heat and deuterium abundance, as
was done with heat and helium production in PdD experiments.
