On Jan 29, 2013, at 3:29 PM, Randy wuller wrote:
Ed:
An idiot would have taken their money out of the stock market in
2008 and 1929.
Unfortunately most of the world is an idiot. Nevertheless, I take your
point.
Now a really good prognosticator would have taken their money out in
2007 and 1928 and put it right back into the market in 2009 and
1930, (but if you know any of those, you may want them to take a lie
detector test) but truly pessimistic people rarely (the type who
would have taken it out in 2007) find the courage to put it back
in. They just see the next disaster.
However, had you stayed the course, your assets would be worth more
today than in 2007. Also, keep in mind that secular bear markets
(like the one we have been in since 2000) have a tendency to run
their course in 15 years or so and we are at 13 now, so the market
bear is getting really long in the tooth. And what ends the age of
pessimism is always interesting and rarely identified until years
later. I suspect it will have something to do with energy because
that is one of the governors restricting world growth today. Which
by the way is the reason I have been watching LENR and chose to sign
up to the Vortex. Nanotechnology may also be the stimulus.
Yes Randy, staying in would have been wise. Getting out in 2007 and
getting back in in 2009 would have been better. But who knew? Now the
situation is starting to repeat according to some observers because
the system was not fixed in 2008. As they say, once fooled ----
I agree, availability of energy is the basic limitation to growth. Now
use of conventional energy is also causing limitations, both present
and potential. LENR will solve many problems if we can get it into
the mainstream, but this effort also has basic limitations.
Nanotechnology will open new markets and, ironically, provide the
solution to making CF work. We just need to understand how to apply
it, which I'm trying to do.
Ed
----- Original Message -----
From: Edmund Storms
To: vortex-l@eskimo.com
Cc: Edmund Storms
Sent: Tuesday, January 29, 2013 3:23 PM
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Another article about the impact of automation on
employment
On Jan 29, 2013, at 2:08 PM, Randy wuller wrote:
Ed:
The housing bubble didn't almost bring down the entire world
economy. That is pure sensationalism. As with any bubble, when it
pops those holding the bag usually suffer. In the case of 2008,
the bag holders got the world governments to spread the suffering.
That conclusion is in conflict with what was claimed at the time and
provided justification for the Tarp funding. As for pessimism, this
is the description someone applies when they do not believe what is
being described. The description is acknowledged as being a true
representation of reality if a person believes what is said. The
question at this point is, who's view of reality is correct? In
2008 and in 1929, a "pessimist" would have taken their money out of
the stock market. The optimist did not. Your choice. We all make
choices that have consequences and these choices must be based on
what is real. I'm trying to understand what is real. Are you?
By the way, what ends the age of pessimism? Do people get their
jobs and homes back? How soon does this happen?
Ed
Your comments sound like many of the doomsday predictors, "peak
oil" etc so prevalent today. Your concern is understandable given
this age of pessimism but instead of getting worked up maybe you
should stick to LENR, if that technology verifies this age of
pessimism will certainly end and all your concerns will evaporate.
By the way, my take is that this age of pessimism is going to end
soon even without LENR.
----- Original Message -----
From: Edmund Storms
To: vortex-l@eskimo.com
Cc: Edmund Storms
Sent: Tuesday, January 29, 2013 2:30 PM
Subject: Re: [Vo]:Another article about the impact of automation on
employment
On Jan 29, 2013, at 1:07 PM, Jed Rothwell wrote:
Ed Storms wrote:
Thanks Mark. Their view of reality differs significantly from what
the
people I read describe. I tend to believe my people because they
predicted the 2008 collapse while Krugman did not. . . .
Krugman did predict it, and warned against it several times. Such
as here, in 2005:
http://www.nytimes.com/2005/05/27/opinion/27krugman.html?_r=0
He repeatedly described the banks' investments in real estate as
junk.
Jed, I read this article and I see no concern except the usual
generalities. He observes that a bubble was being created in the
housing market. He even observed, apparently approvingly, that the
government would create another after this one bursts, although he
did not anticipate the way this is presently being done. He made
no mention that this bubble would almost bring down the entire
world ecconomy. I will give him some credit, He was not as calm
about the problem as was Sir Greenspan. Meanwhile, other people
were very exact about what would happen and when - three years
later from this article.
In fact the
difference is frightening similar to that earlier. Krugman sees no
problem with the status quo while the people I read are in a panic.
Wrong again. He is very much against the status quo. He is not in
a panic for the same reason I am not, and my mother would not be.
It is a personality thing.
I also do not like to be in a panic. As a result, I lost a lot of
money during the 2008 collapse by not taking the panic seriously. I
do not intend to let this happen again.
Ed
We don't get into a tizzy, perhaps even when we should. Case in
point: my mother was riding a trolley car past the Blair House on
November 1, 1950. President Truman was living there while the
White House was being rebuilt. There was a series of loud bangs.
Someone said, "they're trying to assassinate the president!!" My
mother said, "don't be silly; it is just a car backfiring" and
went back to her newspaper. It turned out someone was trying to
assassinate the president.
- Jed
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