On 02/04/2013 04:59 PM, Chuck Sites wrote: > > The bottom line is I just don't understand the thinking of the Global > Warming Deniers, the contrarians. Global Warming is > so blatantly obvious in the data, observations, theory and models that > the only reason I can think that anyone would argue against it's > reality is someone being paid to do so. Either that or your just a > plain gullible person. > > What's blatantly obvious in the data is a correlation. But it's not possible to prove causation from a correlation. That's just a fact. It just means that CO2 is not an independent variable.
What I think is happening is that CO2 is contributing something to the temperature rise, but it's also being pulled by the temperatures. We can see this on an annual basis, as the CO2 level moves up and down in response to seasonal temperature variations. http://www.climate4you.com/images/CO2%20MaunaLoa%20MonthlySince1958.gif But there's no way to know if CO2 is driving the correlation, or if it's the temperature. So you have to guess and say, "Well, it's probably the CO2 which is the primary cause of the change in temperature." It's just a guess because you can't model the entire world, with all of its complexities and feedback loops. Even if you know that CO2 WILL act as a greenhouse gas in a sterile environment, you don't know how it's acting in the atmosphere. But check this out! https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B4QESdNmbCJSMHExcF9OVFRQSGM/edit?usp=sharing Just the simple correlation between temperature and sunspots is 0.81! So if the simple correlation between temperature and sunspots is 0.81 and the simple correlation between temperature and CO2 is 0.96, then isn't it 'possible' that solar activity is driving the temperature and the temperature is driving the CO2 increases -- to SOME degree? Since there is no logical way that temperature changes could drive solar activity, then solar activity is driving the temperature to some degree. That's the only thing that makes sense. CO2 may be affecting it somewhat, but it's not the only thing. Craig PS: I put the worksheet together. It averages temperature anomalies and sunspots over each solar cycle. I am basically compiling a total number of sunspots for each solar cycle, and then subtracting a base number. If the number of sunspots is greater than the base number, then temperatures go up. If the number of sunspots is less than the base number, then temperatures go down. Then I'm scaling down the curve, and centering it, but that's it. There's no forward referencing or any thing else. It also correlates to temperature at 0.916 from 1954 'til present.
