I imagine that yo know Nassim Nicholas Taleb vision.
what you do is matching his advices .

the highly improbable  is much undesrestimated, even if still improbable.

2013/7/27 blaze spinnaker <blazespinna...@gmail.com>

>
> In terms of my credentials though, which might be more interesting,  I
> spent about the last 8 years or so on Intrade making buckets of money
> on making big bets on highly improbable events like this which came
> true.   The opportunities for profit there were incredible.      Some
> examples, I made money on Obama on McCain winning their primaries by
> making early bets (admittedly though I had hedged a bit, but was over
> all long on them).
>
>
>

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