> To give another dramatic example, suppose at 1:00 pm on the afternoon of > December 17, 1903, you were take a poll about whether man can fly. ***A better contract would be that an independent scientific journal (to wit, eventually it was a beekeeping journal) would publish an article about the Wright brothers claiming they had achieved heavier-than-air controlled flight before 1907. Such a contract would have paid out in the Wright brothers' favor, even though Scientific American wasn't interested in publishing it.
On Sun, Jul 28, 2013 at 8:36 PM, Jed Rothwell <jedrothw...@gmail.com> wrote: > blaze spinnaker <blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: > > >> > To give another dramatic example, suppose at 1:00 pm on the afternoon of >> > December 17, 1903, you were take a poll about whether man can fly. >> >> What does that have to do with the value of prediction markets? >> > > I mean only that prediction markets cannot be used to confirm or deny > assertions about scientific or engineering, such as whether airplanes can > exist or not. Prediction markets are the wrong tool for that. They cannot > affect physical reality as measured by instruments and photographs. > > Prediction markets might be a useful way to predict whether the public > will believe that a breakthrough exists, or whether it will continue > denying the facts. I do not know if these markets are good for that > purpose. I do not know enough about them. > > > >> I thought you believed that Rossi had figured this out years ago. >> >> (Which is what I'm trying to predict. . . . > > > You cannot predict that. You can only judge it by a careful evaluation of > the Levi report and by looking at others who have produced Ni-H cold > fusion. "Predicting" is the wrong word in any case. A prediction applies to > the future. Rossi's experiments have already happened. You are trying to > determine whether they proved what he claims. To do that, you must use the > tools of science and engineering, not the tools of a prediction market. > > Or, you might be trying to determine whether other people will believe him > at a given date in the future. That is an entirely different matter. People > did not believe the Wrights until 1908, but obviously they did actually fly > on many occasions between 1903 and 1908. People's beliefs have absolutely > no bearing what is true. Beliefs cannot affect reality. > > It works both ways. If you were betting on the outcome of an election, you > would not try to use the laws of thermodynamics, or a manual on > calorimetry. You might use a prediction market though. > > - Jed > >
