On Mon, Aug 5, 2013 at 6:12 PM, Jed Rothwell <jedrothw...@gmail.com> wrote: . .
Sorry, but I still say this is a mechanism to measure people's opinions, or their feelings. ***No, it is NOT. When I put up the contract for whether or not Dr. Arata's experiment would be replicated in a peer reviewed journal, it had zero to do with people's opinions or feelings. It either was gonna happen or it wasn't. Lotsa people had some opinions & feelings but the actual TRADING of the contract reflected a level of understanding of LENR that went way beyond the idiotic words of skeptopaths. Opinions and feelings have no bearing on experimental reality. ***Of course. But if someone is stupid enough to put their money down on that kind of factual outcome, I'll take it all day long & twice on Sundays. Eventually the price itself is a tremendous indicator. For instance, let's say you were CERTAIN that a black, inexperienced most-liberal-member-of-the-senate could NEVER be president, you'd put up as much money as you could against such a contract. And if there were thousands of Intraders like you, the price & volume would reflect that. However, once he's elected, you lose your money. The FINAL price is what has "bearing" on "experimental reality", i.e., election results. So, then how much would your contract sell for when he runs for RE-election? You'd know that your own opinions were based upon emotion rather than the facts on the ground, and the price would reflect that. Interestingly enough, the price for Obama's contract DID reflect that reality until the exit poll returns started coming in. That reality exists independently of the human mind. The only way to measure it is with instruments. ***So a person who has tremendous confidence in Dr. Mossier-Boss and knowledge of how many journals would publish her peer-reviewed results would have a better perception of such a "reality" compared to someone who simply thinks LENR is voodoo science. Such trading contracts are very valuable as an indicator of what's going on at the knowledge-trading level. You are measuring public opinion vis a vis cold fusion. ***NO, you are not. If that were the case, then my contract would talk about public opinion results rather than peer reviewed journal publications and replication of a scientific finding. This is an interesting thing to measure. It is worthwhile.* ***Glad we agree. But it looks like you're sorta goin' round in circles.
