when people want to make good decision they need good information. when people advise you but have no flesh in the game, they migh fall into wishfull thinking, conformist vision, submission to consensus by fear.
betting, like investing have been observing as less delusional, and information from people who invest or bet, are better than from supporters or tawkers (as says Taleb alias Fat Tony). anyway as shows Enron boss who keep his equities while he was desperately trying to save his company from banckruptcy, people can have flesh in the game and be delusional. That is the basic of the Roland Benabou theory. It happen typically in systems when the delusion of others hurts you, and less when it gives you opportunities. It starts typically with position that seems rational (even if they are errors, but initially legitimate), but when bad news happen, to avoid to reconsider the choice, to admit huge losses, people simply ignore the data... about LENR I have another fear. It is an easy bet to claim LENR is real, and LENR+ will be industrial one day. the problem is that this depend on the opinion of a huge mass of delusional people, who can infinitely impede the recognition and development of LENR. there is no guarantee that the LENR companies are not closed by decision of all the government, avatar UNO decision, advised by MIT lords of science. No guaranty that greenpeace does not lobby all governments to forbid LENR, and LENR research, they the do on other technologies like shales. No guaranty that politician does not push death-comando to destroy the LENR companies like they do with GMO... No guaranty that google try to dereference LENr sites like they tried to do on some other heretic science, or as it is done in China, or in france for copyright violation, revisionism or child-porn... no guaranty that heretic companies in Africa or Iran don't get bombed by drone for such experiments... You don't bet on LENR being real, on Defkalion technology being real, on Rossi E-cat COP>=6. you can only bet on - LENR BEING *ACCEPTED* - DEFKALION BEING *RECOGNIZED* AS REAL - E-CAT COP *VALIDATED* AS >6 all that in mostly human delusion dependent... as peter gluck remind us , this look like a soviet trial, where logic and evidence are not really the same as in the material world we know... just reading the arguments of the hardskeptics give me strong reason to be afraid that ther will be no recognition by those naybelievers... 2013/8/7 Michael Hendrix <mina...@sdc.org> > Forgive me for asking this, but what, exactly, is the point in making bets > as to whether LENR is real, will come to market, will be published in a > reputable journal, etc? For me, this line of discussion is a childish > distraction. Go to Vegas. (Maybe Laughlin,would be more to your style). > > best regards, > > Michael Hendrix > > On Aug 6, 2013, at 8:53 AM, blaze spinnaker wrote: > > Anyways. Talk is cheap. If you think it's such a low chance - bet me! > > On Tue, Aug 6, 2013 at 7:48 AM, blaze spinnaker > <blazespinna...@gmail.com>wrote: > >> "As things stand I think there is no chance that any article will be >> published in a respectable journal or mass media newspaper or website." >> >> Well, unless things have changed in the last few years to make cold >> fusion even more disreputable, this simply isn't true. I'll let Kevin fill >> you in on the details.. >> >> >> On Tue, Aug 6, 2013 at 7:16 AM, Jed Rothwell <jedrothw...@gmail.com>wrote: >> >>> blaze spinnaker <blazespinna...@gmail.com> wrote: >>> >>>> >>>> I was previously willing to give 4:1(20%) odds and take 1:1(50%) that >>>> an article would be presented in a reputable journal >>>> >>> >>> As things stand I think there is no chance that any article will be >>> published in a respectable journal or mass media newspaper or website. I do >>> not know anyone who thinking of writing an article, and I probably know >>> most of the people capable of it. >>> >>> Mark Gibbs demonstrated what happens to mainstream reporters who talk >>> about cold fusion. I realize that he denies he was fired for talking about >>> cold fusion, but I think he is being diplomatic. His last article said he >>> planned to talk more about it, so he did not see this coming. >>> >>> I doubt that a paper or mass media article would be helpful. >>> >>> Both sides oppose publicity. Defkalion and Rossi do not want an article, >>> and no journal or newspaper wants to publish one. >>> >>> Generally speaking, in commerce, confidential information is worthless. >>> Most secrets turn out to be mistakes. Anything with intellectual property >>> value should be patented, which soon makes it open to the public. Many >>> patent applications are also worthless. >>> >>> - Jed >>> >>> >> > >
