I agree with Rick and Mike...the basic model of providing marginal speeds (less than 2 Mb/s) at above market prcies is unsustainable over the next few years.
I'm not a WISP (I do a lot of consulting for various service providers--telcos, MSOs, independent ISPs of all sorts). It works in ultra rural where there isn't much competition. It also works in areas where the WISP is really well executed and the competition can't do basics (like deliver bandwidth). It also works by targetting "niche markets" of various sorts. Still, I do worry about the lot of you who are providing single play or dual play access on a broad residential basis over the next few years... Just a few notes (industry observations, not necessarily relevent to specific providers)... 1. The days of cable promising 10Mb/s and delivering 80Kb/s are pretty much over...most of the major MSOs (Cox/Comcast/TW) have gotten MUCH smarter about this and about their networks and, contrary to various misunderstandings about the nature of the "shared" cable network topology, there is inherently nothing that prevents the technology from delivering 10Mb/s or more to their customers. BTW, that was DOCSIS 2.0; 3.0 is coming down the pipe and delivering 100Mb/s... 2. I used to be heavily involved in an Independent ISP for several years, up until last year. About 5-10 years ago, the independents had better service, better customer service, and, all around, a better value. I don't think that's true anymore. The large guys have gotten MUCH better and have productized their service to the point of it being a simple, straightforward, relatively high quality commodity while a lot of the independents have not really evolved around delivering a simple, dumb pipe with limited capacity and (the major problem) have not really improved business practices or workflows. Most independetnts are (more or less) running the same business in 2007 as in 2002... I think most of the independents got so in the habit of talking about how stupid Bell was that they didn't notice that Bell started getting its act together and clobbering them...your competition may be dumb now, but that may not always be the case. 3. Right now, typical usage is below 1Mb/s. (In other words, for most customers, less than 1 Mb/s is sufficient given typical usage and current Internet applications). However, customers don't necessarily understand that 10Mb/s is not necessarily 10x as good as 1Mb/s....Look at the low uptake on the muniFi market... 4. Again typical usage is currently below 1Mb/s. That WILL change...many countries have 100Mb/s or more already; the US will be there over the next few years as well. The applications will evolve once there is a sufficient end-user markert that has connections that can use 100Mb/s. Think of the evolution from dialup to broadband; the same thing will happen over the next 2-4 years. 5. (This is my main concern for WISPs). A lot of you guys are trying to compete in the residential (ie under $50/month) market providing just Internet access. This means that you are competing against providers who are able to offset the capital cost of providing the connection over multiple service (data, voice, video). In the end, I don't think it is sustainable to competitively build networks with an ARPU of $40/month against competitors who get 2.5x-4x (100-150 ARPU) that amount. Just a few observations...I think the answer lies in 1. Reinvesting in more robust networks 2. Targetting niche markets--ie going after $200/month SMB customers instead of $40 a month residential, targetting various schools, muni needs, etc... 3. Bundling services--use the same pipe for more services 4. Don't even mention bandwidth in your advertising; market to your strengths, not your weaknesses... -Clint Ricker Kentnis Technologies On 9/10/07, Forrest W. Christian <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Sam Tetherow wrote: > > As ISPs in general I think we are going to have to be able to provide > > for this type of traffic. P2P is not all illegal movies. If we want > > to be providers for our community we need to be able to provide for > > the bandwidth hungry applications as well. > I want to be clear... The limits I was talking about are in the tens of > GByte/month range. 2Mb/s continous for days. I don't care whether it's > P2P or a Web Server, or 100 Audio streams or Open Source .iso's being > shared by Bittorrent. The Residential service we provide for > $55/month is supposed to be intermittent, not 2Mb/s continuous. If > someone wants 2Mb/s continous I'm more than happy to charge them > $250/month for it. A typical customer on the $55/month service can > download 2-3 full length, DVD quality, no additional compression movies > without me even blinking an eye. Start sucking (or pushing) 2Mb/s > continuous, then I get a little irritated. > > To me, the loss of a 2Mb/s continous customer is actually a good thing. > 2Mb/s continuous is almost impossible to provide at $55/month in my > neck of the woods. Any provider he goes to is going to cost them more > money than they are charging them. How much are *you* paying for your > upstream? > > -forrest > > > > > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > > ** Join us at the WISPA Reception at 6:30 PM on October the 16th 2007 at > ISPCON ** > ** ISPCON Fall 2007 - October 16-18 - San Jose, CA www.ispcon.com ** > ** THE INTERNET INDUSTRY EVENT ** > ** FREE Exhibits and Events Pass available until August 31 ** > ** Use Customer Code WSEMF7 when you register online at > http://www.ispcon.com/register.php ** > > -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- > WISPA Wants You! 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