We think so now, but is something that came out 5 years ago still good enough? Maybe, though I'm leaning towards no. 10 years? No way.
Now, yes, a class 5 would be fine because phone technology doesn't change nearly as much as data connectivity, especially with the Web 2.0 boom we're on the begging leg of. ---------- Mike Hammett Intelligent Computing Solutions http://www.ics-il.com ----- Original Message ----- From: "Chuck McCown" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "WISPA General List" <wireless@wispa.org> Sent: Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:03 AM Subject: Re: [WISPA] Future >I have ONTs that are 5 years old now out in the field and are doing fine. > I have class 5 central office switchs deployed that are closer to 10 years > old that are still current technology. > What is going to get out of date with a GPON ONT? 2.4 Gbps is plenty of > bandwidth, don't you think? > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Mike Hammett" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > To: "WISPA General List" <wireless@wispa.org> > Sent: Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:00 AM > Subject: Re: [WISPA] Future > > >> The fiber would be good for 20 years and is the most costly part, but the >> other pieces wouldn't be good for 20 years... I'd say only 5 years on >> active components. They may technically work, but they'd be so outdated >> by >> then you wouldn't want them anymore. >> >> >> ---------- >> Mike Hammett >> Intelligent Computing Solutions >> http://www.ics-il.com >> >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: "Chuck McCown" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >> To: "WISPA General List" <wireless@wispa.org> >> Sent: Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:46 AM >> Subject: Re: [WISPA] Future >> >> >>> Highly variable. TV content is costly. Everyone has different costs >>> for >>> transport. But if you are delivering symmetric 10-100 mbps and the TV >>> and >>> phone are a good value, you will probably lock in the customer. On the >>> telco side of the house, we try to make the system pay for itself over a >>> 20 year amortization. If you live in an area served by frontier >>> telephone, might as well go borrow the money and build it because they >>> never will. >>> ----- Original Message ----- >>> From: Travis Johnson >>> To: WISPA General List >>> Sent: Wednesday, April 23, 2008 8:34 AM >>> Subject: Re: [WISPA] Future >>> >>> >>> A couple quick things: >>> >>> (1) You don't necessarily have them for life. People can change to DISH >>> and a wireless provider and do VoIP over that. Especially if they can >>> save >>> $5/month, a lot of people will change. DISH is $35/month for decent >>> programming. Wireless is another $40/month and VoIP can be had for >>> $20/month. >>> >>> (2) It looks good with those numbers, but realistically you have costs >>> way above just the install. On a $100/month customer how much gross >>> profit >>> do you actually make after buying bandwidth, transport, TV channels, >>> VoIP >>> service, etc. I really have no idea, so I am asking. Do you make $20 >>> gross? $1,500 / $20 = 75 months breakeven and this doesn't include >>> support >>> costs, etc. >>> >>> Travis >>> Microserv >>> >>> Chuck McCown wrote: >>> FTTH ONT pricing (the unit on the house) keeps falling. They are about >>> $400 >>> now. >>> You can put in fiber for $1-2/foot (if you have a clear ROW). >>> The CO end is about $50K/terminal that is capable of serving thousands. >>> I don't know what the pro-rata single fiber COT card is, but I think >>> they >>> are are around $2K/port with each port serving 32 on a PON. >>> So, if the plowing is good and the ROWs are clear and free, you can >>> probably >>> get a customer installed (in a fairly dense surburban area) for less >>> than >>> $1500 each. >>> Triple play for $100/month. And you have them for life. >>> Of course this assumes you build it yourself and you already have a NOC >>> and >>> you already have access to and IPTV stream etc. >>> But it is doable. There is a business case for building such a system. >>> Main thing is to do it before the ILEC/RBOC does it. >>> >>> ----- Original Message ----- >>> From: "Marlon K. Schafer" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >>> To: "WISPA General List" <wireless@wispa.org> >>> Sent: Tuesday, April 22, 2008 10:39 PM >>> Subject: Re: [WISPA] Future >>> >>> >>> Well Mike, the way I see it is that the sky has been falling my entire >>> time >>> as an ISP (over a decade now). >>> >>> WiMax is still a joke in the market place. >>> >>> 3G is too slow and too expensive. >>> >>> 700 is not deployed in any level that matters and doesn't look like it >>> will >>> be any time soon. >>> >>> Cable is in trouble because they are dying under the load of the high >>> end >>> users they they keep getting. They need all of the capacity they can >>> come >>> up with for HDTV channels but broadband is taking up too much space on >>> the >>> coax. They also JUST put in their networks. The big companies aren't >>> structured to reinvest in new hardware every few years. I'd say that >>> they >>> will continue to grow and continue to piss off their base. I'm not >>> worried >>> about cable. >>> >>> As for AT&T and Verizon? People already hate the service and prices >>> they >>> have, so far I can sell against them. >>> >>> Fiber is cool, I have FTTH customers. But man is it expensive! There's >>> just no way to ever make the investment back at today's pricing levels. >>> marlon >>> >>> ----- Original Message ----- >>> From: "Mike Hammett" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >>> To: "WISPA List" <wireless@wispa.org> >>> Sent: Sunday, April 20, 2008 5:44 PM >>> Subject: [WISPA] Future >>> >>> >>> What do you see as the future of our industry over the next 5 years? >>> >>> AT&T is expanding U-Verse (will this be available outside of town?) >>> Verizon is expanding FiOS (will this be available outside of town?) >>> Cable will be using DOCSIS 3 >>> 3G will gain more steam >>> WiMAX will have larger and larger shares of the market >>> 700 MHz will be in use possibly for data communications by the big guys >>> >>> >>> My banker asked me, so I figured I'd see what other's opinions are. >>> >>> My thought is that the big guys mentioned above will continue to avoid >>> the >>> niche that we currently serve and we'll be able to provide better >>> services >>> with more spectrum (5.4 GHz, additional 2.5 GHz, 3.6 GHz, possibly TV >>> white spaces) and WiMAX. >>> >>> >>> ---------- >>> Mike Hammett >>> Intelligent Computing Solutions >>> http://www.ics-il.com >>> >>> >>> >>> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>> WISPA Wants You! 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