OK, let me put it this way; how old is the Ethernet technology/protocol you are using? How old is the 802 Ethernet spec? GPON G.984 compliant equipment is the same as IEEE 802 complaint equipment. A spec is a spec. The G.984 spec was ratified 5 years ago. How old is g.707 SONET? 15 years old? OC-3 is still the workhorse. Are you worrying about the cisco switch you just put in being obsolete in 5 or 10 years due to a change in the Ethernet protocol? Phone technology IS data technology. Our network is fiber, that hauls phone, data, video, anything we can put on it. Layer 4-8 changes but layers 1,2&3 go on forever. A GPON FTTH system does not venture into anything above layer 3. SONET is as likely to go away before GPON. Tin whiskers from RoHS, majority charge carrier migration of semiconductors and electrolytic capacitor dehydration is going to kill an ONT before any change of technology or protocol will.
----- Original Message ----- From: "Mike Hammett" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> To: "WISPA General List" <wireless@wispa.org> Sent: Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:15 AM Subject: Re: [WISPA] Future > We think so now, but is something that came out 5 years ago still good > enough? Maybe, though I'm leaning towards no. 10 years? No way. > > Now, yes, a class 5 would be fine because phone technology doesn't change > nearly as much as data connectivity, especially with the Web 2.0 boom > we're > on the begging leg of. > > > ---------- > Mike Hammett > Intelligent Computing Solutions > http://www.ics-il.com > > > ----- Original Message ----- > From: "Chuck McCown" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> > To: "WISPA General List" <wireless@wispa.org> > Sent: Wednesday, April 23, 2008 10:03 AM > Subject: Re: [WISPA] Future > > >>I have ONTs that are 5 years old now out in the field and are doing fine. >> I have class 5 central office switchs deployed that are closer to 10 >> years >> old that are still current technology. >> What is going to get out of date with a GPON ONT? 2.4 Gbps is plenty of >> bandwidth, don't you think? >> >> ----- Original Message ----- >> From: "Mike Hammett" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >> To: "WISPA General List" <wireless@wispa.org> >> Sent: Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:00 AM >> Subject: Re: [WISPA] Future >> >> >>> The fiber would be good for 20 years and is the most costly part, but >>> the >>> other pieces wouldn't be good for 20 years... I'd say only 5 years on >>> active components. They may technically work, but they'd be so outdated >>> by >>> then you wouldn't want them anymore. >>> >>> >>> ---------- >>> Mike Hammett >>> Intelligent Computing Solutions >>> http://www.ics-il.com >>> >>> >>> ----- Original Message ----- >>> From: "Chuck McCown" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >>> To: "WISPA General List" <wireless@wispa.org> >>> Sent: Wednesday, April 23, 2008 9:46 AM >>> Subject: Re: [WISPA] Future >>> >>> >>>> Highly variable. TV content is costly. Everyone has different costs >>>> for >>>> transport. But if you are delivering symmetric 10-100 mbps and the TV >>>> and >>>> phone are a good value, you will probably lock in the customer. On the >>>> telco side of the house, we try to make the system pay for itself over >>>> a >>>> 20 year amortization. If you live in an area served by frontier >>>> telephone, might as well go borrow the money and build it because they >>>> never will. >>>> ----- Original Message ----- >>>> From: Travis Johnson >>>> To: WISPA General List >>>> Sent: Wednesday, April 23, 2008 8:34 AM >>>> Subject: Re: [WISPA] Future >>>> >>>> >>>> A couple quick things: >>>> >>>> (1) You don't necessarily have them for life. People can change to >>>> DISH >>>> and a wireless provider and do VoIP over that. Especially if they can >>>> save >>>> $5/month, a lot of people will change. DISH is $35/month for decent >>>> programming. Wireless is another $40/month and VoIP can be had for >>>> $20/month. >>>> >>>> (2) It looks good with those numbers, but realistically you have costs >>>> way above just the install. On a $100/month customer how much gross >>>> profit >>>> do you actually make after buying bandwidth, transport, TV channels, >>>> VoIP >>>> service, etc. I really have no idea, so I am asking. Do you make $20 >>>> gross? $1,500 / $20 = 75 months breakeven and this doesn't include >>>> support >>>> costs, etc. >>>> >>>> Travis >>>> Microserv >>>> >>>> Chuck McCown wrote: >>>> FTTH ONT pricing (the unit on the house) keeps falling. They are about >>>> $400 >>>> now. >>>> You can put in fiber for $1-2/foot (if you have a clear ROW). >>>> The CO end is about $50K/terminal that is capable of serving thousands. >>>> I don't know what the pro-rata single fiber COT card is, but I think >>>> they >>>> are are around $2K/port with each port serving 32 on a PON. >>>> So, if the plowing is good and the ROWs are clear and free, you can >>>> probably >>>> get a customer installed (in a fairly dense surburban area) for less >>>> than >>>> $1500 each. >>>> Triple play for $100/month. And you have them for life. >>>> Of course this assumes you build it yourself and you already have a NOC >>>> and >>>> you already have access to and IPTV stream etc. >>>> But it is doable. There is a business case for building such a system. >>>> Main thing is to do it before the ILEC/RBOC does it. >>>> >>>> ----- Original Message ----- >>>> From: "Marlon K. Schafer" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >>>> To: "WISPA General List" <wireless@wispa.org> >>>> Sent: Tuesday, April 22, 2008 10:39 PM >>>> Subject: Re: [WISPA] Future >>>> >>>> >>>> Well Mike, the way I see it is that the sky has been falling my entire >>>> time >>>> as an ISP (over a decade now). >>>> >>>> WiMax is still a joke in the market place. >>>> >>>> 3G is too slow and too expensive. >>>> >>>> 700 is not deployed in any level that matters and doesn't look like it >>>> will >>>> be any time soon. >>>> >>>> Cable is in trouble because they are dying under the load of the high >>>> end >>>> users they they keep getting. They need all of the capacity they can >>>> come >>>> up with for HDTV channels but broadband is taking up too much space on >>>> the >>>> coax. They also JUST put in their networks. The big companies aren't >>>> structured to reinvest in new hardware every few years. I'd say that >>>> they >>>> will continue to grow and continue to piss off their base. I'm not >>>> worried >>>> about cable. >>>> >>>> As for AT&T and Verizon? People already hate the service and prices >>>> they >>>> have, so far I can sell against them. >>>> >>>> Fiber is cool, I have FTTH customers. But man is it expensive! >>>> There's >>>> just no way to ever make the investment back at today's pricing levels. >>>> marlon >>>> >>>> ----- Original Message ----- >>>> From: "Mike Hammett" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> >>>> To: "WISPA List" <wireless@wispa.org> >>>> Sent: Sunday, April 20, 2008 5:44 PM >>>> Subject: [WISPA] Future >>>> >>>> >>>> What do you see as the future of our industry over the next 5 years? >>>> >>>> AT&T is expanding U-Verse (will this be available outside of town?) >>>> Verizon is expanding FiOS (will this be available outside of town?) >>>> Cable will be using DOCSIS 3 >>>> 3G will gain more steam >>>> WiMAX will have larger and larger shares of the market >>>> 700 MHz will be in use possibly for data communications by the big guys >>>> >>>> >>>> My banker asked me, so I figured I'd see what other's opinions are. >>>> >>>> My thought is that the big guys mentioned above will continue to avoid >>>> the >>>> niche that we currently serve and we'll be able to provide better >>>> services >>>> with more spectrum (5.4 GHz, additional 2.5 GHz, 3.6 GHz, possibly TV >>>> white spaces) and WiMAX. >>>> >>>> >>>> ---------- >>>> Mike Hammett >>>> Intelligent Computing Solutions >>>> http://www.ics-il.com >>>> >>>> >>>> >>>> -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- >>>> WISPA Wants You! 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