120 proof.
bp
<part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
It's because they're constantly soaked in Vodka
On 3/24/2020 3:07 PM, Bill Prince wrote:
They were interviewing someone from the Russian Health Ministry (or something like that) on NPR yesterday. The person stated that Russia had a natural immunity to this virus because they are so sparsely populated and people don't travel much.
That said, 90% of their population is in a very few cities, and I think that a lot of people come & go from Russia (those cities). But I'm no expert. I still think it's pretty odd that they've only recorded one corona death. The NPR person speculated that the actual corona deaths were just being recorded as "pneumonia". The Russian official disputed that.
bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>On 3/20/2020 12:58 PM, Robert wrote:
i.e. 80% unreported unless you are someone famous or very rich... Sounds like that doctor that was saying over 50K cases in the US four days ago was spot on...
On 3/20/20 10:52 AM, Craig Baird wrote:
Based on recent experience, I don't think the published infection rates are anywhere close to accurate. Why do I say that? My 10 yo. daughter came down with something yesterday morning. She came in our bedroom coughing, wheezing and short of breath. She had a low-grade fever around 100. We have several kids with asthma, so we gave her a breathing treatment using a nebulizer with albuterol sulfate. Then we called our local clinic to see if we could get her into a doctor. After telling the attendant about the situation, instead of making an appointment, she referred us to a Utah state COVID-19 hotline. We called that hotline, and repeated the symptoms. That person told us that due because test kits are in short supply, unless there is severe illness, they are telling everyone who calls to simply self-quarantine, and call back if things get worse.
How can you rely on any infection statistics if they're only sampling those that are severely affected? It's obvious to me that the published statistics don't represent the number of people infected. Rather, they represent the number of severely ill people who are infected. Those with mild illness are not being included in the data. At least in Utah.
Craig
On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 8:34 AM Steve Jones <thatoneguyst...@gmail.com> wrote:
So far population infection rates haven't hit more than 1 percent anywhere have they
--On Fri, Mar 20, 2020, 12:07 AM Kurt Fankhauser <lists.wavel...@gmail.com> wrote:
I'm on the county health board here, they are extremely worried about what is to come. They say the "peak" and "flattening" isn't expected till Mid May. They have not released that to the public yet because they don't want to create panic but sounds like this lockdown could be a new way of life for at least a few months. They are also talking about the possibility of refrigerated semi trailers for the dead bodies if they get that many. Our county population is over 40,000 and between the two hospitals here they have only 8 ventilators. If just one half of 1 percent of the population here needs critical care that is over 200 people. The two hospitals here are only setup for a couple dozen ICU beds each. Traditionally trauma patients that come in here are forwarded to one of the bigger cities which will not be an option due to overstretched resources in the bigger cities and them having even bigger problems than us. Consider that some of the data suggests 10-20% of the infected will need hospitalized you start to grasp the real threat to the healthcare system. Trump knows all this, he was probably briefed with the numbers over a month ago. He would not be tanking the economy right now if this wasn't a real threat of happening. If it wasn't for the travel ban we would probably be right there with Italy as we speak...
--On Fri, Mar 20, 2020 at 12:21 AM Mathew Howard <mhoward...@gmail.com> wrote:
It's especially bad when revolting people revolt...
--On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 11:01 PM Jason McKemie <j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com> wrote:
People are revolting, but they will start to revolt...
On Thursday, March 19, 2020, James Howard <ja...@litewire.net> wrote:
--are you saying that you're not revolting now? Makes me think of the 3 Stooges line "I resemble that remark"......
Oh wait. Did you mean that people will start to revolt? Hmmm.... I thought you meant people were going to be revolting and most people already are.....
From: AF <af-boun...@af.afmug.com> on behalf of Jason McKemie <j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com>
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 8:37:51 PM
To: AnimalFarm Microwave Users Group
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomaliesYeah, you can't have businesses closed past then or you're going to have people revolting (myself included).
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 3:43 PM Bill Prince <part15...@gmail.com> wrote:
--The isolation can not last more than a few weeks, or maybe a month - month and a half. At that point, we should have reduced the number of walking infections without symptoms, and maybe have the ability to actually test for it. After that, it's a crap shoot.
bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>On 3/19/2020 1:18 PM, Mike Hammett wrote:
With "flatten the curve" as your primary tool expected to take years and people only able to half pay attention for a few weeks, we'll have to find something else.
From: "Bill Prince" <part15...@gmail.com>
To: af@af.afmug.com
Sent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 2:54:45 PM
Subject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomalies
The "plan" (no jokes please) seems to be short term isolation to try and flatten the curve. With that, all the infected people not having symptoms will become immune (to some extent) and no longer be contagious. I don't think we can keep people bottled up for more than a few weeks.
bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>On 3/19/2020 12:49 PM, Adam Moffett wrote:
Has anybody laid out what the long term plan is?
We can't keep everybody at home forever and we can't stop all international trade and travel so sooner or later the virus has to run it's course, or so it seems to me.
I know we're trying to slow down the spread so we don't overwhelm the hospital capacity and that's great. Are we going to somehow reduce social isolation over time in a controlled way, or will social isolation end organically as people get sick of staying home?
On 3/19/2020 3:16 PM, Steve Jones wrote:
I dont know how many times i need to point out this logic
The US is undercounted, thats a given. undercounting does not equate hidden numbers of magnitude
Heres the logic thats completely being ignored
The deaths associated with COVID19 that werent tested would have been attributed to fluThere has been no reported increase in flu deaths per the anticipated rates this year
The testing that has been done is very promising. Yesterdays counts of those tested were running around 8 percent positive. This does NOT equate to 8 percent of the population. The "administration bad, nobody can just go get a test for curiousity" argument further strengthens this as a promising number. The ONLY people being tested for the most part, are those in the very high probability category. So of those assumed to be infected, only 8 percent of them actually are.
We still havent hit globally the number of infections and deaths from the swine flu in the US alone. let me reiterate this GLOBALLY TODAY, there are less sick and dead, than from swine flu in the US ALONE. The current response is such that has never been seen in the history of the planet.
Inmates are an issue, with a guard and an inmate at rikers island infected now, we have a national issue. if we dump the prisons, not only do we have a ton of criminals on the street, we have hundreds of thousands of indigent on the streets in the middle of a pandemic. (maybe not having locked up such a percentage of the population in the first place is a whole other OT rant). Iran dumped 70k inmates on the streets, i cant imagine that having helped their situation.
Morons on spring break making a point of interacting even more than they normally would have is illogical enough to eliminate any logic.
On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 2:00 PM Mathew Howard <mhoward...@gmail.com> wrote:
I don't know that Russia's numbers are terribly inaccurate... it's really just starting to spread there now, and the numbers aren't far off what other countries reported early on, and the cases they have reported are almost all in Moscow. They also have much tighter border controls than most of the world, and they're going on lockdown earlier into the outbreak than most countries did... so it's not unbelievable that they'd have low numbers at this point.
But who knows what's really going on in some of these countries... it certainly wouldn't surprise me if China is lying about their numbers, it all depends on what they think is in their best interests at this point, and I don't trust any information from or about North Korea, no matter what the source is, but the high level of government control over everything in North Korea could certainly give them an advantage in this situation.
--On Thu, Mar 19, 2020 at 1:42 PM Bill Prince <part15...@gmail.com> wrote:
--North Korea, Iraq, Iran, Russia, India, Mexico. I heard something on NPR this morning about mass graves in Iran. It may be years (or never) before we understand the scope of this.
bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>On 3/19/2020 11:37 AM, ch...@wbmfg.com wrote:
I still believe North Korea has a huge problem that they are covering up. Especially in the labor camps. Communal sleeping barns etc. No sanitation facilities.From: Bill PrinceSent: Thursday, March 19, 2020 12:34 PMTo: af@af.afmug.comSubject: Re: [AFMUG] OT: virus anomaliesOnly if they attribute it properly. There is plenty of data to indicate that deaths have been incorrectly attributed,
bp <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>On 3/19/2020 11:09 AM, James Howard wrote:
the death count is the death count
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