There's an old, insightful joke about "what is the best price to sell
barrels of oil for", which states that it's something like "$100, $100,
$100, $100, $20, $20, $100, $100, $100....."
At $100 everyone is eager to turn up production and do things like
hydraulic fracturing. At $20, there's a lot of hurt in those same
industries. There is a lot of political and economic force in the ability
to effectively increase and decrease the rarity of a commodity, and as a
side effect, it's price, with a turn of a valve. With additional US
sources coming online, and OPEC deciding not to cut production, there's now
a glut in the market. The question is ... at what level is this
sustainable stateside? I haven't seen a good analysis of the impact of
these lower crude prices on domestic production and more importantly our
willingness to invest in growth of our production capabilities.
Personally, I have mixed feelings. I like the price of gas when I get to
the pump, but I also sell into the oil industry, which I sure hope
continues to drill wells, since it's very good for my bottom line.
-forrest
On Tue, Jan 13, 2015 at 6:58 PM, Caleb Knauer <cknauer.li...@gmail.com>
wrote:
> Yep. Shuts down the oil sands (for a bit), slaps Russia/Venezuela in
> the face, cranks down on the mid-tier producers like Nigeria trying to
> squeeze into the market, etc. It's multiple birds with one stone. US
> oil production will drop, oil sands bubble will pop, and all sorts of
> gloom and doom until prices naturally go back up and we spin up
> production again. The oil guys will take a hammering and I feel bad
> for them, but all bubbles burst. A lot of Americans will have a net
> benefit. Macroeconomics is complex.
>
> On Tue, Jan 13, 2015 at 8:40 PM, Jason McKemie
> <j.mcke...@veloxinetbroadband.com> wrote:
> > From what I've read the drop is pretty much exclusively because of OPEC.
> >
> >
> > On Tuesday, January 13, 2015, Erich Kaiser <er...@northcentraltower.com>
> > wrote:
> >>
> >> I think a lot of the low prices are due to abundance of oil right here
> in
> >> the US from Fracking and Tar sands from Canada. I bet eventually when
> the
> >> additional pipeline capacity is completed it may drive things even
> lower,
> >> but that is just my thought.
> >>
> >> It would be nice if they could do the same with grain.
> >>
> >>
> >> On Tue, Jan 13, 2015 at 12:53 PM, That One Guy <
> thatoneguyst...@gmail.com>
> >> wrote:
> >>>
> >>> I dont know how petroleum stores, the costs of operating, etc. But I
> look
> >>> at it as right now being a great time to get in on it, when the rubber
> band
> >>> snaps, you would already be at peak production capacity, without the
> export
> >>> and shipping to get it to its destination, in North America at least.
> This
> >>> is an artificially deflated market, it cant be sustained since it is
> >>> inherently and artificially inflated market.
> >>>
> >>> On Tue, Jan 13, 2015 at 12:19 PM, CBB - Jay Fuller
> >>> <par...@cyberbroadband.net> wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>> The investment has already been made to build the wells. I know it
> >>>> would suck, but why not shut them down until the price goes up again,
> then
> >>>> just resume production? Even under new ownership? Doesn't sound
> like a
> >>>> permanent problem to me...
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>> ----- Original Message -----
> >>>> From: Bill Prince
> >>>> To: af@afmug.com
> >>>> Sent: Tuesday, January 13, 2015 10:23 AM
> >>>> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Gas Prices
> >>>>
> >>>> It's Saudi Arabia trying to squeeze out all the marginal producers.
> >>>> Initially it will be Russia and some of the other marginals like Iraq
> &
> >>>> Iran.
> >>>>
> >>>> Pretty sure the shale oil and tar sands guys are hurting big time
> right
> >>>> now.
> >>>>
> >>>> bp
> >>>> <part15sbs{at}gmail{dot}com>
> >>>>
> >>>> On 1/13/2015 8:03 AM, Chuck McCown wrote:
> >>>>
> >>>> I wonder what is really driving the price down. Fracking, OPEC
> >>>> diaspora, CAFE improvements, Russia problems ???
> >>>>
> >>>> From: Jeremy
> >>>> Sent: Tuesday, January 13, 2015 8:54 AM
> >>>> To: af@afmug.com
> >>>> Subject: Re: [AFMUG] Gas Prices
> >>>>
> >>>> Thanks Obama! (he gets blamed for EVERYTHING, right??)
> >>>>
> >>>> On Tue, Jan 13, 2015 at 8:41 AM, Josh Luthman
> >>>> <j...@imaginenetworksllc.com> wrote:
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Same up here in Ohio.
> >>>>>
> >>>>> Josh Luthman
> >>>>> Office: 937-552-2340
> >>>>> Direct: 937-552-2343
> >>>>> 1100 Wayne St
> >>>>> Suite 1337
> >>>>> Troy, OH 45373
> >>>>>
> >>>>> On Jan 13, 2015 10:35 AM, "joseph marsh" <bwireless...@gmail.com>
> >>>>> wrote:
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> 1.75 here in my area
> >>>>>>
> >>>>>> On Jan 13, 2015 9:35 AM, "Vlad Sedov" <v...@atlasok.com> wrote:
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> $1.50 to $1.55 in oklahoma city.. crazy.
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> vlad
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>> On 1/13/2015 9:32 AM, Travis Johnson wrote:
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> I never thought I would see gas prices this low. We have stations
> at
> >>>>>>>> $1.71/gallon in our area right now. :)
> >>>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>> Travis
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>>
> >>> --
> >>> All parts should go together without forcing. You must remember that
> the
> >>> parts you are reassembling were disassembled by you. Therefore, if you
> can't
> >>> get them together again, there must be a reason. By all means, do not
> use a
> >>> hammer. -- IBM maintenance manual, 1925
> >>
> >>
> >
>
