On Fri, Dec 7, 2012 at 10:31 PM, Russell Wallace <[email protected]> wrote: > > Hell, for all any of us knows, Moore's Law might hit the end of the line > next year. I think even the most optimistic futurologists would agree that > would throw an awful lot of things out the window.
I should probably write more about this. Clock speeds have already stalled. The smallest transistor feature sizes are now about 100 atoms, so they can't get much smaller. But Moore's Law applies to so many different technologies. We can still lower computing costs by making chips larger, cheaper, and more reliable. Heat dissipation is a problem, but human brains consume only a millionth as much power as a computer running an equivalent sized neural network. Molecular computing is another 100 times as efficient, and still several hundred times above the thermodynamic cost of kT ln 2 of writing a bit of memory. We could improve this even further by cooling and by using reversible or quantum computing. I really don't think we will reach any hard limits before human level AI. Biology has already found a solution. -- Matt Mahoney, [email protected] ------------------------------------------- AGI Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/21088071-f452e424 Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=21088071&id_secret=21088071-58d57657 Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
