On 2/6/07, gts <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote:
I am suggesting that a non-omniscient player need not necessarily be bilked in the sense meant by De Finetti; that is, it needn't be forced to lose automatically due to dutch books made against it.
I'm not talking about dutch book, I'm talking about the following (quoted from Ben's original post, emphasis added): "You _must_ set the price of a promise to pay $1 if S is true, and $0 if S is false. You know that your opponent will be able to choose either to buy such a promise from you at the price you have set, or require you to buy such a promise from your opponent, still at the same price." In your life on Mars example, maybe I believe there is (in some sense that's valid in some contexts) a probability of 0.1, but if a small furry creature from Alpha Centauri lands in his flying saucer and says "greetings Earthling, I'm surveying this solar system, just got through planet 4 and it was thirsty work, hope there are some good pubs here on planet 3, and by the way let's make a bet on whether there's life over on planet 4," I can decline to bet _at all_. Dutch book is a different question. ----- This list is sponsored by AGIRI: http://www.agiri.org/email To unsubscribe or change your options, please go to: http://v2.listbox.com/member/?list_id=303
