Logic has not solved AGI because logic is a poor model of the way people think.
Neural networks have not solved AGI because you would need about 10^15 bits of memory and 10^16 OPS to simulate a human brain sized network. Genetic algorithms have not solved AGI because the computational requirements are even worse. You would need 10^36 bits just to model all the world's DNA, and even if you could simulate it in real time, it took 3 billion years to produce human intelligence the first time. Probabilistic reasoning addresses only one of the many flaws of first order logic as a model of AGI. Reasoning under uncertainty is fine, but you haven't solved learning by induction, reinforcement learning, complex pattern recognition (e.g. vision), and language. If it was just a matter of writing the code, then it would have been done 50 years ago. -- Matt Mahoney, matmaho...@yahoo.com --- On Wed, 1/7/09, Jim Bromer <jimbro...@gmail.com> wrote: > From: Jim Bromer <jimbro...@gmail.com> > Subject: [agi] The Smushaby of Flatway. > To: agi@v2.listbox.com > Date: Wednesday, January 7, 2009, 8:23 PM > All of the major AI paradigms, including those that are > capable of > learning, are flat according to my definition. What makes > them flat > is that the method of decision making is > minimally-structured and they > funnel all reasoning through a single narrowly focused > process that > smushes different inputs to produce output that can appear > reasonable > in some cases but is really flat and lacks any structure > for complex > reasoning. > > The classic example is of course logic. Every proposition > can be > described as being either True or False and any collection > of > propositions can be used in the derivation of a conclusion > regardless > of whether the input propositions had any significant > relational > structure that would actually have made it reasonable to > draw the > definitive conclusion that was drawn from them. > > But logic didn't do the trick, so along came neural > networks and > although the decision making is superficially distributed > and can be > thought of as being comprised of a structure of layer-like > stages in > some variations, the methodology of the system is really > just as flat. > Again anything can be dumped into the neural network and a > single > decision making process works on the input through a > minimally-structured reasoning system and output is > produced > regardless of the lack of appropriate relative structure in > it. In > fact, this lack of discernment was seen as a major > breakthrough! > Surprise, neural networks did not work just like the mind > works in > spite of the years and years of hype-work that went into > repeating > this slogan in the 1980's. > > Then came Genetic Algorithms and finally we had a system > that could > truly learn to improve on its previous learning and how did > it do > this? It used another flat reasoning method whereby > combinations of > data components were processed according to one simple > untiring method > that was used over and over again regardless of any > potential to see > input as being structured in more ways than one. Is anyone > else > starting to discern a pattern here? > > Finally we reach the next century to find that the future > of AI has > already arrived and that future is probabilistic reasoning! > And how > is probabilistic reasoning different? Well, it can solve > problems > that logic, neural networks, genetic algorithms > couldn't! And how > does probabilistic reasoning do this? It uses a funnel > minimally-structured method of reasoning whereby any input > can be > smushed together with other disparate input to produce a > conclusion > which is only limited by the human beings who strive to > program it! > > The very allure of minimally-structured reasoning is that > it works > even in some cases where it shouldn't. It's the > hip hooray and bally > hoo of the smushababies of Flatway. > > Jim Bromer ------------------------------------------- agi Archives: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/303/=now RSS Feed: https://www.listbox.com/member/archive/rss/303/ Modify Your Subscription: https://www.listbox.com/member/?member_id=8660244&id_secret=123753653-47f84b Powered by Listbox: http://www.listbox.com
