Hello Everybody, I totally agree with you James... the process is a continuous evolution.
I did my prediction on October 6th for the "Chicken Little Competition" and my date was January 23rd 2012. It surprisingly agrees with your prediction done almost one month later, this make me think that my assumptions were right, up to now at least. 73s Fabio IW8QKU/5 Hi Jim, Thanks for the update on your AMSAT Journal article. There are several people on the bb who are following this topic and are busy plotting data. Any futher thoughts you have, as we move towards January would, I am sure be of interest. 73 John G7HIA ________________________________ From: DeYoung James <deyoung_ja...@yahoo.com> To: amsat-bb <amsat-bb@amsat.org> Sent: Tuesday, 15 November, 2011 17:29:31 Subject: [amsat-bb] ARISSat-1 (37772) decay Greetings, First, thank you Mineo for reading the AMSAT Journal and making several of my papers available on your web site. My AMSAT Journal paper published in the March/April 2011 issue is actually still fairly valid for the scenarios shown in the paper. The solar flux has turned out to be somewhat higher than was used/predicted in the paper. This has caused the atmospheric densities to be higher which results in higher decay rates. When I wrote the paper I had this nagging feeling that stopping the release height scenarios at 370-km was not going to be high enough. We are very fortunate that the ISS was boosted to such a height before release of ARISSat-1 and not after release! There is a valuable lesson, I think, to be made with respect to predicting satellite decay dates far into the future. The future state of the atmosphere, i.e. the atmospheric density that the satellite will pass through is poorly predictable in the long-term, say starting greater than a week or two into the future. Predictions of satellite decay dates months in the future should be evaluated with the understanding that your date of prediction errors may be large. The errors are due to the future uncertainties of the orbital path which grow quickly with time in a prediction. The atmospheric density is not the only source of error. Your orbit model, the integrator, and the accounting of the gravitational and drag forces among others will affect your results. Predictions of satellite decay dates are not do-and-forget. The general process is to make a prediction, get new measured observations of the height in the future, and at some point re-do your prediction when the errors become significant to you. With that all said here is my current prediction using the same tools used in the AMSAT J. paper and produced as of 2011 November 13th. The decay of ARISSat-1 (37772) will happen nominally on 2012 January 30th with a 10% rule-of-thumb error allowance of 18 days around this date. The errors may be larger than the rule-of-thumb indicates! Jim, N8OQ _______________________________________________ Sent via AMSAT-BB@amsat.org. Opinions expressed are those of the author. Not an AMSAT-NA member? Join now to support the amateur satellite program! Subscription settings: http://amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb _______________________________________________ Sent via AMSAT-BB@amsat.org. Opinions expressed are those of the author. Not an AMSAT-NA member? Join now to support the amateur satellite program! Subscription settings: http://amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb
