Hi,
My current prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 is
January 4, 2012, +/- 3 days. If solar and geomagnetic
activity really increase before the end of December,
as some predictions suggest, the decay may be a few
days earlier.
73,
Nico PA0DLO
On 2011-12-11 15:24, Nico Janssen wrote:
Hi,
Solar activity has remained at relatively low levels. There
have not been any M or X class solar flares nor magnetic
storms in the past several weeks. As a result, the expected
decay date of ARISSat 1 has shifted into January. It is now
to be expected around January 3, but depending on solar
activity it may be more than 5 days later or earlier.
73,
Nico PA0DLO
On 2011-11-28 21:36, Nico Janssen wrote:
Hi,
With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is
quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two
weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around
140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also
there have not been any magnetic storms.
As a result of this low solar activity, the expected decay
date of ARISSat 1 has now slipped to the end of December.
My current prediction is 27 December. But if solar activity
stays at these low levels, the decay date will even shift
into early January. So it is still too early to make any
sensible predictions.
73,
Nico PA0DLO
On 2011-11-18 15:05, Nico Janssen wrote:
Hi,
So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1
have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011.
Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is
December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity
develops in the coming weeks.
So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011
to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual decay date.
73,
Nico PA0DLO
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