Try driving at 17,500 mph...
-----Original Message----- From: amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org [mailto:amsat-bb-boun...@amsat.org] On Behalf Of Tom Williams Sent: Saturday, December 31, 2011 12:43 PM To: Nico Janssen Cc: amsat-bb@amsat.org Subject: [amsat-bb] Re: ARISSat-1 (37772) decay Do we really expect the temp to get substantially higher before it begins to tumble? Just sort of thinking about putting my hand out the window of my car, there's a lot of aero force before it gets hot... Tom KJ4EAW On Dec 31, 2011, at 9:46 AM, Nico Janssen <ham...@xs4all.nl> wrote: > Hi, > > My prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 still stays on > the same date: January 4 +/- 1 day. > > As the aerodynamic drag increases, the telemetry of the > satellite should show ever higher temperatures in the > coming days. Especially interesting is the data from the > Kursk experiment, that measures the density of the air > around the satellite. > > Happy New Year to all! > > 73, > Nico PA0DLO > > > On 2011-12-22 16:15, Nico Janssen wrote: >> Hi, >> >> My current prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 is >> January 4, 2012, +/- 3 days. If solar and geomagnetic >> activity really increase before the end of December, >> as some predictions suggest, the decay may be a few >> days earlier. >> >> 73, >> Nico PA0DLO >> >> >> On 2011-12-11 15:24, Nico Janssen wrote: >>> Hi, >>> >>> Solar activity has remained at relatively low levels. There >>> have not been any M or X class solar flares nor magnetic >>> storms in the past several weeks. As a result, the expected >>> decay date of ARISSat 1 has shifted into January. It is now >>> to be expected around January 3, but depending on solar >>> activity it may be more than 5 days later or earlier. >>> >>> 73, >>> Nico PA0DLO >>> >>> >>> On 2011-11-28 21:36, Nico Janssen wrote: >>>> Hi, >>>> >>>> With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is >>>> quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two >>>> weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around >>>> 140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also >>>> there have not been any magnetic storms. >>>> >>>> As a result of this low solar activity, the expected decay >>>> date of ARISSat 1 has now slipped to the end of December. >>>> My current prediction is 27 December. But if solar activity >>>> stays at these low levels, the decay date will even shift >>>> into early January. So it is still too early to make any >>>> sensible predictions. >>>> >>>> 73, >>>> Nico PA0DLO >>>> >>>> >>>> On 2011-11-18 15:05, Nico Janssen wrote: >>>>> Hi, >>>>> >>>>> So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1 >>>>> have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011. >>>>> Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is >>>>> December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity >>>>> develops in the coming weeks. >>>>> >>>>> So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011 >>>>> to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual decay date. >>>>> >>>>> 73, >>>>> Nico PA0DLO >>>>> >>>>> >>>> _______________________________________________ >>>> Sent via AMSAT-BB@amsat.org. Opinions expressed are those of the author. >>>> Not an AMSAT-NA member? Join now to support the amateur satellite >>>> program! >>>> Subscription settings: http://amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb >>>> >> _______________________________________________ >> Sent via AMSAT-BB@amsat.org. Opinions expressed are those of the author. >> Not an AMSAT-NA member? Join now to support the amateur satellite program! >> Subscription settings: http://amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb >> > _______________________________________________ > Sent via AMSAT-BB@amsat.org. Opinions expressed are those of the author. > Not an AMSAT-NA member? Join now to support the amateur satellite program! > Subscription settings: http://amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb _______________________________________________ Sent via AMSAT-BB@amsat.org. Opinions expressed are those of the author. Not an AMSAT-NA member? Join now to support the amateur satellite program! Subscription settings: http://amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb _______________________________________________ Sent via AMSAT-BB@amsat.org. Opinions expressed are those of the author. Not an AMSAT-NA member? Join now to support the amateur satellite program! Subscription settings: http://amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb
