Do we really expect the temp to get substantially higher before it begins to tumble? Just sort of thinking about putting my hand out the window of my car, there's a lot of aero force before it gets hot...
Tom KJ4EAW On Dec 31, 2011, at 9:46 AM, Nico Janssen <ham...@xs4all.nl> wrote: > Hi, > > My prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 still stays on > the same date: January 4 +/- 1 day. > > As the aerodynamic drag increases, the telemetry of the > satellite should show ever higher temperatures in the > coming days. Especially interesting is the data from the > Kursk experiment, that measures the density of the air > around the satellite. > > Happy New Year to all! > > 73, > Nico PA0DLO > > > On 2011-12-22 16:15, Nico Janssen wrote: >> Hi, >> >> My current prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 is >> January 4, 2012, +/- 3 days. If solar and geomagnetic >> activity really increase before the end of December, >> as some predictions suggest, the decay may be a few >> days earlier. >> >> 73, >> Nico PA0DLO >> >> >> On 2011-12-11 15:24, Nico Janssen wrote: >>> Hi, >>> >>> Solar activity has remained at relatively low levels. There >>> have not been any M or X class solar flares nor magnetic >>> storms in the past several weeks. As a result, the expected >>> decay date of ARISSat 1 has shifted into January. It is now >>> to be expected around January 3, but depending on solar >>> activity it may be more than 5 days later or earlier. >>> >>> 73, >>> Nico PA0DLO >>> >>> >>> On 2011-11-28 21:36, Nico Janssen wrote: >>>> Hi, >>>> >>>> With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is >>>> quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two >>>> weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around >>>> 140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also >>>> there have not been any magnetic storms. >>>> >>>> As a result of this low solar activity, the expected decay >>>> date of ARISSat 1 has now slipped to the end of December. >>>> My current prediction is 27 December. But if solar activity >>>> stays at these low levels, the decay date will even shift >>>> into early January. So it is still too early to make any >>>> sensible predictions. >>>> >>>> 73, >>>> Nico PA0DLO >>>> >>>> >>>> On 2011-11-18 15:05, Nico Janssen wrote: >>>>> Hi, >>>>> >>>>> So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1 >>>>> have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011. >>>>> Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is >>>>> December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity >>>>> develops in the coming weeks. >>>>> >>>>> So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011 >>>>> to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual decay date. >>>>> >>>>> 73, >>>>> Nico PA0DLO >>>>> >>>>> >>>> _______________________________________________ >>>> Sent via AMSAT-BB@amsat.org. Opinions expressed are those of the author. >>>> Not an AMSAT-NA member? Join now to support the amateur satellite >>>> program! >>>> Subscription settings: http://amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb >>>> >> _______________________________________________ >> Sent via AMSAT-BB@amsat.org. Opinions expressed are those of the author. >> Not an AMSAT-NA member? Join now to support the amateur satellite program! >> Subscription settings: http://amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb >> > _______________________________________________ > Sent via AMSAT-BB@amsat.org. Opinions expressed are those of the author. > Not an AMSAT-NA member? Join now to support the amateur satellite program! > Subscription settings: http://amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb _______________________________________________ Sent via AMSAT-BB@amsat.org. Opinions expressed are those of the author. Not an AMSAT-NA member? Join now to support the amateur satellite program! Subscription settings: http://amsat.org/mailman/listinfo/amsat-bb
