Hi,
My updated (and probably last) prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
January 4, 09:00 UTC ± 5 hours.
Recent predictions from other sources:
- USSTRATCOM TIP message:
January 4, 05:34 UTC ± 11 hours
- Aerospace:
January 4, 07:35 UTC ± 4 hours
(http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).
For those who would like to track ARISSat 1 till the very end, but
who do not have access to the latest orbital data, I have generated
the following two-line element sets.
After 2012-01-04, 01:10 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK 12004.04907143 .10590547 82197-1 80387-3 0 94757
2 37772 51.6192 213.1232 0005039 247.4614 112.4853 16.39580411 24076
After 2012-01-04, 02:35 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK 12004.10999442 .12344606 11664+0 78957-3 0 94751
2 37772 51.6188 212.7785 0004712 247.7188 112.2313 16.40971462 24087
After 2012-01-04, 04:05 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK 12004.17086135 .14945730 18056+0 77289-3 0 94750
2 37772 51.6183 212.4335 0004334 247.9765 111.9774 16.42620927 24090
After 2012-01-04, 05:30 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK 12004.23166040 .19278117 32316+0 63018-3 0 94754
2 37772 51.6178 212.0879 0003875 248.2346 111.7241 16.44675832 24107
After 2012-01-04, 07:00 UTC, use this set:
1 37772U 98067CK 12004.29237155 .28278236 77737+0 51650-3 0 94753
2 37772 51.6170 211.7417 0003268 248.4933 111.4719 16.47481875 24116
73,
Nico PA0DLO
On 2012-01-02 16:38, Nico Janssen wrote:
Hi,
My updated prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
January 4, 18:00 UTC ± 12 hours.
Recent predictions from other sources:
- USSTRATCOM TIP message:
January 4, 12:06 UTC ± 24 hours
- Aerospace:
January 4, 07:34 UTC ± 28 hours
(http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).
73,
Nico PA0DLO
On 2012-01-01 15:49, Nico Janssen wrote:
Hi,
My updated prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1:
January 4, 10:00 UTC +/- 18 hours.
Recent predictions from other sources:
- USSTRATCOM TIP message:
January 4, 07:46 UTC +/- 48 hours
- Aerospace:
January 4, 07:34 UTC +/- 28 hours
(http://reentrynews.aero.org/1998067ck.html).
73,
Nico PA0DLO
On 2011-12-31 15:46, Nico Janssen wrote:
Hi,
My prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 still stays on
the same date: January 4 +/- 1 day.
As the aerodynamic drag increases, the telemetry of the
satellite should show ever higher temperatures in the
coming days. Especially interesting is the data from the
Kursk experiment, that measures the density of the air
around the satellite.
Happy New Year to all!
73,
Nico PA0DLO
On 2011-12-22 16:15, Nico Janssen wrote:
Hi,
My current prediction for the decay of ARISSat 1 is
January 4, 2012, +/- 3 days. If solar and geomagnetic
activity really increase before the end of December,
as some predictions suggest, the decay may be a few
days earlier.
73,
Nico PA0DLO
On 2011-12-11 15:24, Nico Janssen wrote:
Hi,
Solar activity has remained at relatively low levels. There
have not been any M or X class solar flares nor magnetic
storms in the past several weeks. As a result, the expected
decay date of ARISSat 1 has shifted into January. It is now
to be expected around January 3, but depending on solar
activity it may be more than 5 days later or earlier.
73,
Nico PA0DLO
On 2011-11-28 21:36, Nico Janssen wrote:
Hi,
With its relatively high area to mass ratio, ARISSat 1 is
quite sensitive to space weather changes. In the past two
weeks solar flux values have been relatively low, around
140, while they were around 180 in the weeks before. Also
there have not been any magnetic storms.
As a result of this low solar activity, the expected decay
date of ARISSat 1 has now slipped to the end of December.
My current prediction is 27 December. But if solar activity
stays at these low levels, the decay date will even shift
into early January. So it is still too early to make any
sensible predictions.
73,
Nico PA0DLO
On 2011-11-18 15:05, Nico Janssen wrote:
Hi,
So far all my analyses of the evolution of the orbit of ARISSat 1
have resulted in a predicted decay date sometime in December 2011.
Actually my current predicted decay date for this satellite is
December 17. Obviously it depends very much on how solar activity
develops in the coming weeks.
So now we have seen decay predictions ranging from December 2011
to April 2012. Let's see how we converge to the actual decay date.
73,
Nico PA0DLO
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program!
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