On Tue, 19 Aug 2003, Bryan Caplan wrote: > The simplest - but indirect - answer is just the Principle of > Mediocrity. Astronomically, there doesn't appear to be any big way in > which our planet is special. So why would we be special in this respect > either?
Suppose all planets are identical in the sense that they each have a one in 10^100 probability of developing intelligent life. None are "special" in any way ex ante; earth simply experienced a very low probability event. Isn't such an argument consistent with both the Principle and the observation that we haven't come across any ETs? > The book goes through a lot of direct argument too. At least according > to its summary of the literature, it seems relatively easy for life to > originate. Once you've got life, evolution makes the emergence of > intelligence at least seem somewhat likely. I am not at all well read in this literature, but I have several times read that the formation of self-replicating molecules is extremely unlikely. According to the book, that isn't the case? Cheers, Chris.
