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Because you said it.
>That would be an unfortunate outcome, in which Assam will be
the loser.
RB
----- Original Message -----
Sent: Wednesday, January 18, 2006 9:30
AM
Subject: Re: [Assam] Reforms - The
CONCLUSION
>You got it right, GOI will
not be the looser.
*** Will you explain WHY?
At 9:28 AM -0600 1/18/06, Rajen Barua wrote:
>That would be an unfortunate outcome,
in which Assam will be the loser.
You
got it right, GOI will not be the looser.
But
how can one who is already a looser (Assam) be a looser again? You
mean 'more looser'?
RB
----- Original Message -----
From: Chan
Mahanta
To: assam@assamnet.org ; Roy, Santanu
Sent: Wednesday, January 18, 2006 9:13 AM
Subject: Re: [Assam] Reforms - The
CONCLUSION
Hi Santanu:
Of all the analyses, yours make the most sense, and I agree
with most of it. I also was not sure how Utpal's points correlate with the
ones you make. But be that as it may, allow me to chime in
here:
As I see it, the GOI thinks of
negotiations with ULFA as basically a process of waiting till the latter
is ready to surrender - the only talk it wants is to check out if they
are ready for that - and if that ever happens, they have a
stdandard face saving formula that they will offer - bits of
special powers for the state, maybe inner line permit, lots of central
funds (to fatten the leaders) and a political process to return them to
power in the state elections.
>As I see it, the ULFA has no reason to accept such an
offer at this point.
**** I will have to agree with what you observe above. I
harbor similar concerns. The Naga non-negotiations and the stand-still is
an example of things to expect. However what is unknown here is
whether ULFA will submit itself to a prolonged period of non-ability to
put any pressure on GoI, by resumption of violence again that is, if the
talks do not progress. That would be an unfortunate outcome, in which
Assam will be the loser. It therefore behooves the people of Assam--at
least those who want to see an end to the hostilities with some essential
and measurable gains for Assam, to put political/public opinion pressures
on GoI . Similarly on that segment of Assam's establishment and
intelligentsia, who is opposed to meaningful and substantive governmental
reforms
and regaining of controls over its resources, either
willfully or unwittingly.
________________________________________________________________________________
*** I wrote the above on Monday, on my way back to St.Louis.
Since then, we have already seen things changing, like ULFA's notice to
OIL ( or was it ONGC? ), and an editorial in the Sentinel of yesterday's,
in which it criticizes ( rightly, for a change) the
ghee-belly-governor-general's 'bad-cop' talk, contradicting Delhi's
willingness to engage in talks with ULFA for a negotiated settlement of
the conflict. While it could be given the benefit of the doubt that
Dilli's right hand does not know what its left is doing, a frequent
phenomenon, I will be loathe to accept it. It looks more and more like
that ol' "good-cop, bad-cop" routine. Does ULFA see the handwriting on the
wall? I will have to believe they do, very well.
And it does not bode well.
________________________________________________________________________________
Like we discussed earlier , here arises the importance of a
concerted political effort both on ULFA's part as well as that segment of
Assam which is sympathetic to ULFA's efforts on behalf of Assam, as an
essential concurrent movement.
Reluctantly, I am resigned to the notion that the tiny segment
that is beholden to Delhi's interests should be ignored as irrelevant and
a complete waste of effort.
But those of us who do care, have an important role to play:
To help move the efforts for a negotiated along, by mobilizing public
support. One such effort would be by offering ideas for a reformed Assam
governance, based on real ( asc opposed to the desi kind) democratic
concepts and principles.
c-da
At 10:18 PM -0600 1/13/06, Roy, Santanu wrote:
Utpal:
I agree with your
vision.
The way I see it - in the short run, there is almost nothing
substantive that one can get the GOI to accede to in terms of effective
decentralization of power or plebscite or any other adjustment to the
political relationship between Delhi and Assam. The babus and polticians
that run Delhi are under almost no pressure at all.
Chandan-da
suggested that the pressure might come from the fact that New Delhi
wants to look like a big world power and carry international prestige
& it can't do that with an armed rebellion and suppression of
liberty in one part of its country. I actually don't think that India
has any such ambition. India want to be China in terms of international
leverage. China routinely suppresses even peaceful peasant movements by
brute force. International power follows from aggregate economic and
military might. It does not require internal democracy or liberty.
Countries like today's India, China, current Russia, Iran, Turkey are
not very civil (I know I am going to be lynched for saying this)- they
do not aim to project their power through moral superiority of their
internal social order.
The only way a rebellion in Assam would threaten India's
ascendency would be if it made India look unstable. But like Chechnya or
even the Kurdish border in Turkey, Assam is almost a detached fringe of
Indian society. It cannot destabilize India as of
now.
Therefore, I see no closure in
sight.
I also agree with you that hope lies in history. None of us
concievably imagine what the geopolitical map of the world will look
like 20 or 30 years from now. To take advantage of historical
opportunities (like your third world war), one needs to have a strong
civil movement at the grassroot level - a cohesive nationality formation
process. That is much harder than armed
insurrection.
Santanu.
-----Original
Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] on behalf of Malabika
Brahma
Sent: Sat 1/14/2006 10:57 AM
To: assam@assamnet.org
Subject: Re: [Assam] Reforms - The
CONCLUSION
Ram da asked some very practical questions. We
all know that the GOI is controlled by politicians who gives a damn if
Assam or NE bleeds to death.
Here is the fact (as stressed by
Santanu )
Those who control GOI are
politicians who care less for the people of Assam and NE and care less
for the lives of soldiers that die in NE. So achieving independence
through an armed struggle is next to
impossible.
The only way independence can be
achieved are:
1. By making constitutional
amendment to include "instrument of secession" in Indian constitution
and influencing upon the GOI to hold a plesbicite in Assam/NE and hope
that majority of the people vote for secession. But this can not be
achieved unless there is move to build a consensus in the National
level.
2. By hoping that a 3rd world war
breaks out and GOI finds it impossible to manage the present political
India. Actually in my opinion 2nd world war is what helped India
win its independence from the British. It became too expensive for
Britain to maintain its colonies because of its involvement in the
war. This again is highly unlikely.
May
be Chandan da or Mike da knows some other Practical Means of achieving
independence that we are missing.
That's why I
think "Independence of Assam/NE is excellent to have but not possible to
achieve". So why build castles in the air
?
But yes, if we can force GOI to hold a
plesbicite, that will be the greatest victory. What will be the outcome
of the plesbicite , is left to speculation of
course.
But one thing we have to
understand, for Government of India , ULFA and NDFB may not count,
but for Assam and NE, they are our boys after all. When one
ULFA/NDFB member gets eliminated, one of my brother or sister is getting
eliminated.
Utpal
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