Re: Corona Virus: is it the beginning of the end?
The Spanish Flu's death toll, while only estimated and not pinpointed to an exact number, was not 350 million. The upper bound seems to reside somewhere around 100 million, which is still horribly high, but nowhere near 350 million. From my research, the number people tend to go with is 50 million, but for purposes of my post, let's take the highest/worst-case numbers from that pandemic versus conservative/best-case numbers of this pandemic. This means that 20% of the number of total cases died if we take the statistic that says 500 million total were infected. In other words, 10% of the world's population died. That is indeed a scary number, I cannot deny that.
The world's total population is currently sitting at nearly 7.8 billion. Even at a 1% case-fatality rate (CFR), given 40% of the world will be infected after the virus makes its way around the globe, 31 million people will have died. These numbers, at present, are being highly generous.
In 1918, the US did not undertake measures to restrict the spread as we are today. Cities that implemented such similar measures back then did see a noticeable decrease in cases of those infected and died; however, much of the nation did not operate on this basis. Healthcare, technology, and other resources available to us today were not available back then. World War I also played a significant role in the spread as well. Europe today, by contrast, has also restricted air travel to contain the spread.
@376, not sure where you got the stat that says 350 million people died from the Spanish Flu.
@379, point taken we should consider previous experience to not only gain perspective but also prepare better; I'm just not getting what of that particular pandemic or the way it was handled (or lack thereof) you're saying is vital to the current outbreak. I'm interpreting your comparison between the two as "It could be way worse so we need to stop freaking out." Perhaps that's not your intent, but it comes off that way.
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