Re: Corona Virus: is it the beginning of the end?
The Spanish Flu's death toll, while only estimated and not pinpointed to an exact number, was not 350 million. The upper bound seems to reside somewhere around 100 million, which is still horribly high, but nowhere near 350 million. From my research, the number people tend to go with is 50 million, but for purposes of my post, let's take the highest/worst-case numbers from that pandemic versus conservative/best-case numbers of this pandemic. This means that 20% of the number of total cases died if we take the statistic that says 500 million total were infected. In other words, 10% of the world's population died. That is indeed a scary number, I cannot deny that.
The world's total population is currently sitting at nearly 7.8 billion. Even at a 1% case-fatality rate (CFR), given 40% of the world will be infected after the virus makes its way around the globe, 31 million people will have died. These numbers, at present, are being highly generous.
In 1918, the US did not undertake measures to restrict the spread as we are today. Cities that implemented such similar measures back then did see a noticeable decrease in cases of those infected and died; however, much of the nation did not operate on this basis. Healthcare, technology, and other resources available to us today were not available back then. World War I also played a significant role in the spread as well. Europe today, by contrast, has also restricted air travel to contain the spread.
@376, not sure where you got the stat that says 350 million people died from the Spanish Flu.
@379, point taken we should consider previous experience to not only gain perspective but also prepare better; I'm just not getting what of that particular pandemic or the way it was handled (or lack thereof) you're saying is vital to the current outbreak. I'm interpreting your comparison between the two as "It could be way worse so we need to stop freaking out." Perhaps that's not your intent, but it comes off that way.
Edit: Well said @381. I am in no way advocating for people to lose their minds or to diminish the fact that everybody is impacted by the virus, even if you're not in any danger of contracting it or becoming ill. I am also not claiming this is the worst thing that has ever happened in the history of humans' existence. What I am saying is that drawing comparisons is not too entirely helpful, especially when juxtaposed with other diseases from time periods that had their own issues wit handling pandemics of large caliber.
My stance: You'll most likely be fine when it comes to your immediate health regarding COVID19. Try to remain calm as best you can, but don't become so complacent that you view it's beneath everything else. Politicians in America are actually prioritizing the economy before people's health, and even their lives, and that's a severe issue. Social distancing is not the best phrase to define the physical distancing we are experiencing, and I agree we shouldn't be calling it that.
Let's not become so consumed in the media, other diseases, and hysteria. We need to read, stay informed, be here for each other, and not berate or minimize the experiences of those who are having a difficult time living in this new state of the world.
Be kind to each other. I must reiterate I mean no disrespect or to condescend to folks on this thread, this forum, or elsewhere in the world. This is a very sensitive/controversial topic, and I am only going off of what health experts and organizations are reporting.
Above all else, stay humble. Everyone just wants the best for one another, so we need to think of the bigger picture here, while also not forgetting ourselves and those we love.
I believe I have spent all of the physical energy I can on discussing this and don't have too much else to add. I wish everyone the best, and I will be checking this thread to keep up with you all.
Please, take good care of yourselves.
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