Yes, it is clearly a Tropical Cyclone but only 12 hours or so before
landfall the 3 models are still not saying the same things and the
maximum wind speeds for tomorrow morning before landfall are showing
only 100km/hour or so.
Could intensify. What is the Sea Surface Temperature under the
predicted track? A first world country would be flying aircraft over
the cyclone at high altitude and putting dropsonde's into it regular
time and distance intervals. or use a HALE (High Altitude Long
Endurance) drone to do it. Put a small GPS chip in each sonde and
report the speeds and altitudes and locations as it parachutes into
the ocean. Then we'd have actual DATA. The weather above a cyclone at
high altitude is benign. It is actually a high pressure area
up near the tropopause. Look at the high altitude cirrus blow off on
the satellite pictures, the circulation is anticlockwise in the
Southern Hemisphere. Right now do the movie on the BoM site of the hi
res satellite images. You'll see the low clouds circulating
clockwise and the high clouds going anticlockwise.
I used to do this stuff for a living.
Mike
At 07:35 PM 3/27/2017, you wrote:
Mike,
sitting in the disaster coord centre. have a look at the mackay
radar. Classic high intensity cyclone with the hole in the middle.
Peter Heath
------ Original Message ------
From: "Mike Borgelt" <mborg...@borgeltinstruments.com>
To: "Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia."
<aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au>
Sent: Monday, 27 Mar, 2017 At 7:24 PM
Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] weather models
Ooh look, the models are converging less than 15 hours before 10am
tomorrow! Real measured updates to re-initialise obviously work.
Note however the difference between the models on maximum windspeed
and extent of high wind area. It will be interesting to see the
further convergence after more observational input updates.
Mike
At 03:03 PM 3/27/2017, you wrote:
Those who have a touching faith in weather models might like to look
at <http://www.ventusky.com/>www.ventusky.com and check where the
cyclone will be at 10am tomorrow and what the wind speeds will be around it.
The redo with the other 2 models.
Mike
Borgelt Instruments - design & manufacture of quality soaring
instrumentation since 1978
<http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/>www.borgeltinstruments.com
tel: 07 4635 5784 overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784
mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784
P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia
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Borgelt Instruments - design & manufacture of quality soaring
instrumentation since 1978
<http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/>www.borgeltinstruments.com
tel: 07 4635 5784 overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784
mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784
P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia
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instrumentation since 1978
www.borgeltinstruments.com
tel: 07 4635 5784 overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784
mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784
P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia
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