Gary,
I'm not worried about the cyclone as such. When
it comes to cyclones I like to follow Robert
Heinlein's advice on defence against nuclear
weapons "don't be there when it goes off". Looks
like Hamilton Island and Airlie Beach will be
about where Debbie crosses the coast. We were
there in August 2011 and took a bus trip around
town and on to Proserpine and back. As there
weren't many passengers we got the driver to give
us a commentary. Yazi had been through some
months before and you could see some of the
damage to vegetation. Apparently the cyclone
knocked down some trees that were blocking
people's views, just a coincidence of course.
What is interesting is that the 3 weather models
which you can select on Ventusky (Windyty uses
the same ones I think) show quite different
results for the wind speeds and also at 7AM the
positions and central pressures are different on the 3 models.
If you use these model predictions and they give
3 different results you shouldn't be too surprised if some else then happens.
Mike
At 10:44 PM 3/27/2017, you wrote:
Content-Type: multipart/alternative;
boundary="----=_NextPart_000_0007_01D2A754.194DDB70"
Content-Language: en-au
Mike,
All good logical theoretical stuff. Perhaps
funding is an impediment to doing what you
suggest re data collection? I seem to recall
seeing some rather gripping video on this Maybe from NCAR?
However, would it be true to say, that all the
models are accurate enough to predict that the
people who live on the Queensland coast in the
Mackay/Townsville belt are in for a bit of a blow?
In the real world, the actuality is that these
people are preparing for a major disaster! Lives
will probably be lost, and there will be major
property loss for sure, regardless of the exact
track of the epicentre, or the eventual
category that is assigned to Cyclone Debbie currently Cat 4.
Who on this forum, remembers Cyclone Yasi, from
2011? .... Just 6 years ago. If you choose to
live in the tropics, you might give some thought
to the cyclone risk, that you will encounter,
possibly sooner, rather than later. Risk vs. reward.
Gary
From: Aus-soaring
[mailto:aus-soaring-boun...@lists.base64.com.au] On Behalf Of Mike Borgelt
Sent: Monday, 27 March 2017 9:51 PM
To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia.
Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] weather models
Yes, it is clearly a Tropical Cyclone but only
12 hours or so before landfall the 3 models are
still not saying the same things and the maximum
wind speeds for tomorrow morning before landfall
are showing only 100km/hour or so.
Could intensify. What is the Sea Surface
Temperature under the predicted track? A first
world country would be flying aircraft over the
cyclone at high altitude and putting dropsonde's
into it regular time and distance intervals. or
use a HALE (High Altitude Long Endurance) drone
to do it. Put a small GPS chip in each sonde
and report the speeds and altitudes and
locations as it parachutes into the ocean. Then
we'd have actual DATA. The weather above a
cyclone at high altitude is benign. It is actually a high pressure area
up near the tropopause. Look at the high
altitude cirrus blow off on the satellite
pictures, the circulation is anticlockwise in
the Southern Hemisphere. Right now do the movie
on the BoM site of the hi res satellite images.
You'll see the low clouds circulating clockwise
and the high clouds going anticlockwise.
I used to do this stuff for a living.
Mike
At 07:35 PM 3/27/2017, you wrote:
Mike,
sitting in the disaster coord centre. have a
look at the mackay radar. Classic high intensity
cyclone with the hole in the middle.
Peter Heath
------ Original Message ------
From: "Mike Borgelt"
<<mailto:mborg...@borgeltinstruments.com>mborg...@borgeltinstruments.com>
To: "Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in
Australia."
<<mailto:aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au>aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au>
Sent: Monday, 27 Mar, 2017 At 7:24 PM
Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] weather models
Ooh look, the models are converging less than 15
hours before 10am tomorrow! Real measured
updates to re-initialise obviously work.
Note however the difference between the models
on maximum windspeed and extent of high wind
area. It will be interesting to see the further
convergence after more observational input updates.
Mike
At 03:03 PM 3/27/2017, you wrote:
Those who have a touching faith in weather
models might like to look at
<http://www.ventusky.com/>www.ventusky.com and
check where the cyclone will be at 10am tomorrow
and what the wind speeds will be around it.
The redo with the other 2 models.
Mike
Borgelt Instruments - design & manufacture of
quality soaring instrumentation since 1978
<http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/>www.borgeltinstruments.com
tel: 07 4635 5784 overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784
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<http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/>www.borgeltinstruments.com
tel: 07 4635 5784 overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784
mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784
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<http://www.borgeltinstruments.com/>www.borgeltinstruments.com
tel: 07 4635 5784 overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784
mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784
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P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia
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