I was overlooking Airlie marina at Cannonvale beach. High winds and gusty pre the eye, then calm for guess 5hrs in eye (50km across) then 180° wind change then huge and non stop (no gusting) on the tail end of Debbie. It was huge and slow moving compared to earlier cyclones.
I can say no parents in East coast Queensland will ever name their daughter Debbie for a long long time. Airlie Beach, Cannonvale and Proserpine are about to become towns and cities powered by huge diesel generators for a long time. The high voltage network is just destroyed and expect after eventually it is rebuilt there will be a lot less sharing of poles with low volts and high volts. I have not seen them but believe extra high voltage towers have toppled. There are no air services in and out of Proserpine Airport for a week now and says because of "infrastructure" . The infrastructure is the perimeter fence has been breached so no longer a secure airport!!! Meanwhile even today Virgin are putting on more extra evacuation flights to Hamilton Island (empty flights in full out to Brisbane.) So Hitler is alive and well at some airports in Australia and I think many of us know the good (friendly security) airports and not so friendly airports. I for one will never stop at such unfriendly airports overnight. At these times water and fuel are the most important items and not necessarily power. Wollies got trucks in real early and you get a free bag of ice with purchases!! A bit off topic but some may be interested. Ian McPhee 0428847642 Box 657 Byron Bay NSW 2481 On 28 Mar 2017 10:53 am, "Mike Borgelt" <mborg...@borgeltinstruments.com> wrote: > The wind direction at Hamilton island just changed by 180 degrees to > WNW/NW . This would mean it is the other side of the eye. Unless the met > tower just got taken out. > > Mike > > > At 10:25 AM 3/28/2017, you wrote: > > It looks like the ICON model on Ventusky is the most accurate for > position. Hamilton Is. had a gust to 125Kts a short time ago. Was pretty > close to the eye wall at the time. > > https://www.mpimet.mpg.de/en/science/models/icon/ > > Graham > > On 27/03/2017 8:44 PM, Gary Stevenson wrote: > > Mike, > All good logical theoretical stuff. Perhaps funding is an impediment to > doing what you suggest re data collection? I seem to recall seeing some > rather gripping video on this – Maybe from NCAR? > > However, would it be true to say, that all the models are accurate enough > to predict that the people who live on the Queensland coast in the > Mackay/Townsville belt are in “for a bit of a blow”? > > In the real world, the actuality is that these people are preparing for a > *major > disaster!* Lives will probably be lost, and there will be major property > loss for sure, regardless of the exact track of the epicentre, or the > eventual “category” that is assigned to “Cyclone Debbie” – currently Cat 4. > > Who on this forum, remembers Cyclone Yasi, from 2011? .... Just 6 years > ago. If you choose to live in the tropics, you might give some thought to > the cyclone risk, that you *will* encounter, possibly sooner, rather than > later. Risk vs. reward. > > Gary > > *From:* Aus-soaring [ mailto:aus-soaring-boun...@lists.base64.com.au > <aus-soaring-boun...@lists.base64.com.au>] *On Behalf Of *Mike Borgelt > *Sent:* Monday, 27 March 2017 9:51 PM > *To:* Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia. > *Subject:* Re: [Aus-soaring] weather models > > Yes, it is clearly a Tropical Cyclone but only 12 hours or so before > landfall the 3 models are still not saying the same things and the maximum > wind speeds for tomorrow morning before landfall are showing only > 100km/hour or so. > > Could intensify. What is the Sea Surface Temperature under the predicted > track? A first world country would be flying aircraft over the cyclone at > high altitude and putting dropsonde's into it regular time and distance > intervals. or use a HALE (High Altitude Long Endurance) drone to do it. > Put a small GPS chip in each sonde and report the speeds and altitudes and > locations as it parachutes into the ocean. Then we'd have actual DATA. The > weather above a cyclone at high altitude is benign. It is actually a high > pressure area > up near the tropopause. Look at the high altitude cirrus blow off on the > satellite pictures, the circulation is anticlockwise in the Southern > Hemisphere. Right now do the movie on the BoM site of the hi res satellite > images. You'll see the low clouds circulating clockwise and the high clouds > going anticlockwise. > > I used to do this stuff for a living. > > Mike > > > > > At 07:35 PM 3/27/2017, you wrote: > > Mike, > sitting in the disaster coord centre. have a look at the mackay radar. > Classic high intensity cyclone with the hole in the middle. > > Peter Heath > > > ------ Original Message ------ > From: "Mike Borgelt" < mborg...@borgeltinstruments.com> > To: "Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia." < > aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au> > Sent: Monday, 27 Mar, 2017 At 7:24 PM > Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] weather models > Ooh look, the models are converging less than 15 hours before 10am > tomorrow! Real measured updates to re-initialise obviously work. > Note however the difference between the models on maximum windspeed and > extent of high wind area. It will be interesting to see the further > convergence after more observational input updates. > Mike > > > > > > At 03:03 PM 3/27/2017, you wrote: > Those who have a touching faith in weather models might like to look at > www.ventusky.com and check where the cyclone will be at 10am tomorrow and > what the wind speeds will be around it. > The redo with the other 2 models. > Mike > > > > > > > Borgelt Instruments - design & manufacture of quality soaring > instrumentation since 1978 > www.borgeltinstruments.com > tel: 07 4635 5784 <(07)%204635%205784> overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784 > <(07)%204635%205784> > mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784 > P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia > _______________________________________________ > Aus-soaring mailing list > Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au > http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring > Borgelt Instruments - design & manufacture of quality soaring > instrumentation since 1978 > www.borgeltinstruments.com > tel: 07 4635 5784 <(07)%204635%205784> overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784 > <(07)%204635%205784> > mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784 > P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia > ------------------------------ > _______________________________________________ > Aus-soaring mailing list > Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au > http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring > _______________________________________________ > Aus-soaring mailing list > Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au > http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring > > *Borgelt Instruments *- > *design & manufacture of quality soaring instrumentation since 1978 * > www.borgeltinstruments.com > tel: 07 4635 5784 <(07)%204635%205784> overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784 > <(07)%204635%205784> > mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784 > P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia > > > > _______________________________________________ > Aus-soaring mailing list > Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au > http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring > > > _______________________________________________ > Aus-soaring mailing list > Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au > http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring > > *Borgelt Instruments* - > *design & manufacture of quality soaring instrumentation since 1978 * > www.borgeltinstruments.com > tel: 07 4635 5784 overseas: int+61-7-4635 5784 > mob: 042835 5784 : int+61-42835 5784 > P O Box 4607, Toowoomba East, QLD 4350, Australia > > _______________________________________________ > Aus-soaring mailing list > Aus-soaring@lists.base64.com.au > http://lists.base64.com.au/listinfo/aus-soaring > >
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