I wouldn't be surprised if you analysed the figures to find the
variations are not statistically significant so 2001-03 not an
anomaly at all.
On 20/04/2007, at 3:17 PM, Robinson, Peter B wrote:
Over 16 yrs it averages out at around 2 fatal accidents per yr
The anomaly in the figures is 2001 to 2003 - Was this just a
statistical
anomaly or did we do something right without realising it?
-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of
Texler,
Michael
Sent: Friday, 20 April 2007 10:54 AM
To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia.
Subject: RE: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for gliders in Australia
Thanks for those who have replied to me off list, some of my numbers
were in error:
These are the fatal accident figures (not numbers killed) since 1991,
any corrections (preferably off list)?
1991 3
1992 1
1993 1
1994 3
1995 2
1996 0
1997 6
1998 3
1999 2
2000 2
2001 0
2002 0
2003 0
2004 1
2005 3
2006 3
2007 1
At least 34 deaths from 31 fatal accidents.
Again the problem is what to use as the denominator (i.e.fatalities
versus hours flown, number of flights, number of active GFA members,
km's flown etc.) Also note that some of the accidents killed more than
one person, hence the numerator may be rubbery too.
Need to delve into GFA and GA stats to derive meaningful stats.
The other problem is that we are dealing with a low frequency
event, so
again sensible use of statistical methods is required.
Regards,
M.T.
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