Anthony,
While 3 years without a gliding fatality would be a great
achievement it means very little from a safety point of view if we
have the same number off accidents and the fatality numbers are simply being
transferred to the injury column of the statistical database. We still would
have had a bad year. It may also mean that some people just got very lucky.
I wear my heart on my sleeve on this topic because I am one of those lucky
ones who walked away from what could have been a fatal accident with only a
damaged aircraft and a bruised ego.
How many of you leave home in the morning thinking to them selves I am going
to crash my car or aircraft today? Hopefully in this forum the answer is no
one. So what we need to understand is why people who have no intention of
having an accident, many of them very experienced in what they are doing,
still have accidents. Fortunately a lot of research has already been done on
this issue, these kind of accidents and deaths cost millions in industry, so
before members of this forum try to re-invent the wheel I recommend you read
Professor James Reason or Patrick Hudson on the subject, it makes
interesting reading.
Jeramy - congratulations - it sounds like you are one of the few people in
gliding who truly understand the subject and are doing something positive
about it.
SDF
-----Original Message-----
From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
[mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Anthony
Smith
Sent: Friday, 20 April 2007 3:28 PM
To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia.
Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for gliders in Australia
I did, based on some really simple stats (someone better at
it can have a go).
The average is ~1.8 per year.
The standard deviation is ~1.6 per year.
What it means is that a couple of years at 0 is not
statistically meaningfull.
I think we need to go for 3 years with 0 deaths to start to
be meaningfull.
It also means we need to kill off 7 of us to be a
meaningfully bad year (ie a trend getting significantly
worse).
> I wouldn't be surprised if you analysed the figures to
> find the variations are not statistically significant so
> 2001-03 not an anomaly at all.
>
>
>
> On 20/04/2007, at 3:17 PM, Robinson, Peter B wrote:
>
> > Over 16 yrs it averages out at around 2 fatal accidents
> per yr >
> > The anomaly in the figures is 2001 to 2003 - Was this
> > just a statistical
> > anomaly or did we do something right without realising
> it? >
> > -----Original Message-----
> > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED]
> > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On
> > Behalf Of Texler,
> > Michael
> > Sent: Friday, 20 April 2007 10:54 AM
> > To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in
> > Australia. Subject: RE: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for
> gliders in Australia >
> > Thanks for those who have replied to me off list, some
> > of my numbers were in error:
> >
> > These are the fatal accident figures (not numbers
> > killed) since 1991, any corrections (preferably off
> list)? >
> > 1991 3
> > 1992 1
> > 1993 1
> > 1994 3
> > 1995 2
> > 1996 0
> > 1997 6
> > 1998 3
> > 1999 2
> > 2000 2
> > 2001 0
> > 2002 0
> > 2003 0
> > 2004 1
> > 2005 3
> > 2006 3
> > 2007 1
> >
> > At least 34 deaths from 31 fatal accidents.
> >
> > Again the problem is what to use as the denominator
> > (i.e.fatalities versus hours flown, number of flights,
> > number of active GFA members, km's flown etc.) Also note
> > that some of the accidents killed more than one person,
> hence the numerator may be rubbery too. >
> > Need to delve into GFA and GA stats to derive meaningful
> stats. >
> > The other problem is that we are dealing with a low
> > frequency event, so
> > again sensible use of statistical methods is required.
> >
> > Regards,
> >
> > M.T.
> >
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