Anthony, While 3 years without a gliding fatality would be a great achievement it means very little from a safety point of view if we have the same number off accidents and the fatality numbers are simply being transferred to the injury column of the statistical database. We still would have had a bad year. It may also mean that some people just got very lucky. I wear my heart on my sleeve on this topic because I am one of those lucky ones who walked away from what could have been a fatal accident with only a damaged aircraft and a bruised ego.
How many of you leave home in the morning thinking to them selves I am going to crash my car or aircraft today? Hopefully in this forum the answer is no one. So what we need to understand is why people who have no intention of having an accident, many of them very experienced in what they are doing, still have accidents. Fortunately a lot of research has already been done on this issue, these kind of accidents and deaths cost millions in industry, so before members of this forum try to re-invent the wheel I recommend you read Professor James Reason or Patrick Hudson on the subject, it makes interesting reading. Jeramy - congratulations - it sounds like you are one of the few people in gliding who truly understand the subject and are doing something positive about it. SDF -----Original Message----- From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On Behalf Of Anthony Smith Sent: Friday, 20 April 2007 3:28 PM To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in Australia. Subject: Re: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for gliders in Australia I did, based on some really simple stats (someone better at it can have a go). The average is ~1.8 per year. The standard deviation is ~1.6 per year. What it means is that a couple of years at 0 is not statistically meaningfull. I think we need to go for 3 years with 0 deaths to start to be meaningfull. It also means we need to kill off 7 of us to be a meaningfully bad year (ie a trend getting significantly worse). > I wouldn't be surprised if you analysed the figures to > find the variations are not statistically significant so > 2001-03 not an anomaly at all. > > > > On 20/04/2007, at 3:17 PM, Robinson, Peter B wrote: > > > Over 16 yrs it averages out at around 2 fatal accidents > per yr > > > The anomaly in the figures is 2001 to 2003 - Was this > > just a statistical > > anomaly or did we do something right without realising > it? > > > -----Original Message----- > > From: [EMAIL PROTECTED] > > [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED] On > > Behalf Of Texler, > > Michael > > Sent: Friday, 20 April 2007 10:54 AM > > To: Discussion of issues relating to Soaring in > > Australia. Subject: RE: [Aus-soaring] accident rate for > gliders in Australia > > > Thanks for those who have replied to me off list, some > > of my numbers were in error: > > > > These are the fatal accident figures (not numbers > > killed) since 1991, any corrections (preferably off > list)? > > > 1991 3 > > 1992 1 > > 1993 1 > > 1994 3 > > 1995 2 > > 1996 0 > > 1997 6 > > 1998 3 > > 1999 2 > > 2000 2 > > 2001 0 > > 2002 0 > > 2003 0 > > 2004 1 > > 2005 3 > > 2006 3 > > 2007 1 > > > > At least 34 deaths from 31 fatal accidents. > > > > Again the problem is what to use as the denominator > > (i.e.fatalities versus hours flown, number of flights, > > number of active GFA members, km's flown etc.) Also note > > that some of the accidents killed more than one person, > hence the numerator may be rubbery too. > > > Need to delve into GFA and GA stats to derive meaningful > stats. > > > The other problem is that we are dealing with a low > > frequency event, so > > again sensible use of statistical methods is required. > > > > Regards, > > > > M.T. > > > > _______________________________________________ > > Aus-soaring mailing list > > Aus-soaring@lists.internode.on.net > > To check or change subscription details, visit: > > > http://lists.internode.on.net/mailman/listinfo/aus-soaring > > > > > The material contained in this email may be confidential > > , privileged or copyrighted. If you are not the > > intended recipient, use, disclosure or copying of this > > information is prohibited. If you have received this > > document in error, please advise the sender and delete > > the document. Neither OneSteel nor the sender accept > responsibility for any viruses contained in this email or > > any attachments. > > > > _______________________________________________ > > Aus-soaring mailing list > > Aus-soaring@lists.internode.on.net > > To check or change subscription details, visit: > > > http://lists.internode.on.net/mailman/listinfo/aus-soaring > > _______________________________________________ > Aus-soaring mailing list > Aus-soaring@lists.internode.on.net > To check or change subscription details, visit: > http://lists.internode.on.net/mailman/listinfo/aus-soaring _______________________________________________ Aus-soaring mailing list Aus-soaring@lists.internode.on.net To check or change subscription details, visit: http://lists.internode.on.net/mailman/listinfo/aus-soaring _______________________________________________ Aus-soaring mailing list Aus-soaring@lists.internode.on.net To check or change subscription details, visit: http://lists.internode.on.net/mailman/listinfo/aus-soaring