Travis Edmunds wrote:
> Do you mean (A) singualarity? If so, I saw one the other night > on TNG. If not...then could you explain? I probably am familiar > with what you speak of, but it's not exactly rolling of my > tongue.
The Singularity Robert's talking about is metaphorically like a black hole-type singularity, because you can't see in from outside. The idea is that computing technology (and other technologies as well) has been increasing in speed and power exponentially. Assuming that exponential curve continues at the same rate, computers should have the raw processing power of a human brain in about 30 years or so, give or take a year or two. Moore's Law suggests that 18 months later, they'll be equivalent to 2 brains, then 18 months later, 4 brains, then 8 brains, 16 brains, etc. In the course of a few years, that effect should change society so much and so rapidly that people living before it happens can't even comprehend it, much less predict its effects with any reliability.
Vernor Vinge is the main author who promoted the idea in science fiction, and serious stories since then have had to react to it. They either have to explain why it didn't happen in the particular far future society they're writing about
Perhaps because some working in the AI field were predicting the same thing thirty years ago, and like controlled fusion as a commercially feasible power source, thirty years later it is still thirty years away?
HAL Turned Seven Last Month And I Didn't Send A Card Maru
-- Ronn! :)
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