The calculation that Gnubg uses is based upon Kees van den Doel: http://www.cs.ubc.ca/~kvdoel/tmp/ratings/
The calculation and the variables you plug in are summarized at the top. How the calculation is arrived at it discussed in the 90% of the article after that. Once you get a Ratings difference from that equation you then use the Fibs formula to convert the ratings difference into MWC. The part of the fibs formula you want is here: Take the ratings difference computed in the part above and use it as the value for variable ³D² in the formula below. The match length is variable ³n² First we compute U (Chances of Underdog to win) as U = 1/(10^(D*SQRT(n)/2000)+1) To compute the chances of the favorite winning its simple computed as 1-U So if you were playing a 15 point match (n) and the rating difference computed by Kee¹s forumla at the link provided was 47.13 (for example), you would get soemthing like: D = 47.13 (Rating difference) n = 15 (Match length) U = 1 / (10^(47.13*sqrt(15)/2000)+1) U = .447655 Chance of underdog Winning - U * 100 = 44.77% Chance of Favorite winning - (1-U) * 100 = 55.23% I haven¹t done any investigation, but I¹m not sure if the information needed to do the ratings difference calculation (Part 1 above) is available through standard player records, but I am pretty sure if you use the relational database to store the records that all the info you need is there. Let me know if this helps at all. Mike On 5/12/08 10:11 AM, "Thomas Koch" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Is there a possibility to derive (e.g. calculate) my match winning chances > against a certain person from the gnubg error rate shown in the player > records? Let's say my error rate in the player record is 0.0200 and my > opponents error rate is 0.0300. How can I calculate my match winning chances > for a 5pt, 11pt, 25pt- match etc.? I would like to get something like the > "luck adjusted result" from the match statistics which tells me that I am e.g. > 60% favorite to win a 5pter against this opponent. What is the formula? > > Thanks in advance, > Thomas Koch > > > > _______________________________________________ > Bug-gnubg mailing list > Bug-gnubg@gnu.org > http://lists.gnu.org/mailman/listinfo/bug-gnubg
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