Considering that all you need is EPM and EPC (The error rates for the Unforced moves, and cubes) - the player records will suffice. The value N in the formula is the match length. These 3 values can simply be plugged into this reduce formula:
R = (8798 + 25526/N)*EPM+(863 - 519/N)*EPC, R = ratings differnce based on checker, cube play, and match length values. On 5/12/08 10:33 AM, "Michael Petch" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > The calculation that Gnubg uses is based upon Kees van den Doel: > > http://www.cs.ubc.ca/~kvdoel/tmp/ratings/ > > The calculation and the variables you plug in are summarized at the top. How > the calculation is arrived at it discussed in the 90% of the article after > that. > > Once you get a Ratings difference from that equation you then use the Fibs > formula to convert the ratings difference into MWC. The part of the fibs > formula you want is here: > Take the ratings difference computed in the part above and use it as the value > for variable ³D² in the formula below. The match length is variable ³n² > > First we compute U (Chances of Underdog to win) as U = > 1/(10^(D*SQRT(n)/2000)+1) > To compute the chances of the favorite winning its simple computed as 1-U > > So if you were playing a 15 point match (n) and the rating difference computed > by Kee¹s forumla at the link provided was 47.13 (for example), you would get > soemthing like: > > D = 47.13 (Rating difference) > n = 15 (Match length) > > U = 1 / (10^(47.13*sqrt(15)/2000)+1) > U = .447655 > > Chance of underdog Winning - U * 100 = 44.77% > Chance of Favorite winning - (1-U) * 100 = 55.23% > > I haven¹t done any investigation, but I¹m not sure if the information needed > to do the ratings difference calculation (Part 1 above) is available through > standard player records, but I am pretty sure if you use the relational > database to store the records that all the info you need is there. > > Let me know if this helps at all. > > Mike > > On 5/12/08 10:11 AM, "Thomas Koch" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > >> Is there a possibility to derive (e.g. calculate) my match winning chances >> against a certain person from the gnubg error rate shown in the player >> records? Let's say my error rate in the player record is 0.0200 and my >> opponents error rate is 0.0300. How can I calculate my match winning chances >> for a 5pt, 11pt, 25pt- match etc.? I would like to get something like the >> "luck adjusted result" from the match statistics which tells me that I am >> e.g. 60% favorite to win a 5pter against this opponent. What is the formula? >> >> Thanks in advance, >> Thomas Koch >> >> >> >> _______________________________________________ >> Bug-gnubg mailing list >> Bug-gnubg@gnu.org >> http://lists.gnu.org/mailman/listinfo/bug-gnubg > > > > _______________________________________________ > Bug-gnubg mailing list > Bug-gnubg@gnu.org > http://lists.gnu.org/mailman/listinfo/bug-gnubg Michael Petch Quortech Solutions Ltd. Cell: (403)804-5700 Home: (403)209-1628 Off: (403)516-2612 This e-mail is the property of QuorTech Solutions, Inc. and iTechnology Customer Service and Support, Inc. and may contain confidential and privileged material for the sole use of the intended recipient(s). Any review, use, distribution or disclosure by others is strictly prohibited. If you are not the intended recipient (or authorized to receive for the recipient), please contact the sender and delete all copies of the message.
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