That is exactly what I am searching for. Thank you very much. I suppose that even with a biased cube error rate I will get pretty good results. The rating difference D must be D = R_favorite - R_underdog, right? Now that you are thinking about recalculating the values submitted by Kees van den Doel, how about integrating the formula into GnuBG? I think that would be quite handy and appreciated by most users! Thanks for your efforts and good luck with the calculations. I am looking forward to the reviewed formula!
Thomas Koch 2008/5/12 Michael Petch <[EMAIL PROTECTED]>: > Considering that all you need is EPM and EPC (The error rates for the > Unforced moves, and cubes) - the player records will suffice. The value N in > the formula is the match length. These 3 values can simply be plugged into > this reduce formula: > > *R = (8798 + 25526/N)*EPM+(863 - 519/N)*EPC*, > > R = ratings differnce based on checker, cube play, and match length > values. > > On 5/12/08 10:33 AM, "Michael Petch" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > > The calculation that Gnubg uses is based upon Kees van den Doel: > > http://www.cs.ubc.ca/~kvdoel/tmp/ratings/<http://www.cs.ubc.ca/%7Ekvdoel/tmp/ratings/> > > The calculation and the variables you plug in are summarized at the top. > How the calculation is arrived at it discussed in the 90% of the article > after that. > > Once you get a Ratings difference from that equation you then use the Fibs > formula to convert the ratings difference into MWC. The part of the fibs > formula you want is here: > Take the ratings difference computed in the part above and use it as the > value for variable "D" in the formula below. The match length is variable > "n" > > First we compute U (Chances of Underdog to win) as U = > 1/(10^(D*SQRT(n)/2000)+1) > To compute the chances of the favorite winning its simple computed as > 1-U > > So if you were playing a 15 point match (n) and the rating difference > computed by Kee's forumla at the link provided was 47.13 (for example), you > would get soemthing like: > > D = 47.13 (Rating difference) > n = 15 (Match length) > > U = 1 / (10^(47.13*sqrt(15)/2000)+1) > U = .447655 > > Chance of underdog Winning - U * 100 = 44.77% > Chance of Favorite winning - (1-U) * 100 = 55.23% > > I haven't done any investigation, but I'm not sure if the information > needed to do the ratings difference calculation (Part 1 above) is available > through standard player records, but I am pretty sure if you use the > relational database to store the records that all the info you need is > there. > > Let me know if this helps at all. > > Mike > > On 5/12/08 10:11 AM, "Thomas Koch" <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > > Is there a possibility to derive (e.g. calculate) my match winning chances > against a certain person from the gnubg error rate shown in the player > records? Let's say my error rate in the player record is 0.0200 and my > opponents error rate is 0.0300. How can I calculate my match winning chances > for a 5pt, 11pt, 25pt- match etc.? I would like to get something like the > "luck adjusted result" from the match statistics which tells me that I am > e.g. 60% favorite to win a 5pter against this opponent. What is the formula? > > Thanks in advance, > Thomas Koch > > > ------------------------------ > _______________________________________________ > Bug-gnubg mailing list > Bug-gnubg@gnu.org > http://lists.gnu.org/mailman/listinfo/bug-gnubg > > > > ------------------------------ > _______________________________________________ > Bug-gnubg mailing list > Bug-gnubg@gnu.org > http://lists.gnu.org/mailman/listinfo/bug-gnubg > > > > > Michael Petch > Quortech Solutions Ltd. > Cell: (403)804-5700 > Home: (403)209-1628 > Off: (403)516-2612 > > > This e-mail is the property of QuorTech Solutions, Inc. and iTechnology > Customer Service and Support, Inc. and may contain confidential and > privileged material for the sole use of the intended recipient(s). Any > review, use, distribution or disclosure by others is strictly prohibited. If > you are not the intended recipient (or authorized to receive for the > recipient), please contact the sender and delete all copies of the message. > -- Der Backgammon Blog: http://graswurzelbackgammon.wordpress.com
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