The samples are weighted according to voter registrations and historic turn out. Most of the polls have their methodologies posted so you can examine them.
Which gets back to my earlier point wondering who is actually going to show up and vote. Obama has the potential to turn out record numbers of minority and youth voters. Polls which sample based on historic turnouts would then undercount Obama's results. It is also possible, of course, that pollsters may be under sampling demographics that swing to McCain. If he pulled historic turnout amongst older voters or something, that would swing things his way. Thus far I haven't seen many arguments that McCain is pulling a stronger than normal turn out from any particular demographics. Voter enthusiasm will determine the people that show up and vote. All the polls I've seen show a stronger enthusiasm for Obama amongst his supporters than for McCain amongst his supporters. Palin was a pick meant to help decrease that enthusiasm gap. It certainly did do that at the beginning. The effect seems to have worn off its peak, though is still present. The gap still exists from what I've seen. Bottom line though is turning enthusiasm into votes. Judah On Wed, Oct 8, 2008 at 12:04 PM, Sam <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > The samplings are always 5-10% more democrats than republicans for > some strange reason. > > On Wed, Oct 8, 2008 at 11:52 AM, Judah McAuley <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: >> Are you referring to the Bradley effect? The idea that people will say >> publicly that they will vote for the black guy but then not actually >> do it? I've seen it mentioned but I think its a pretty untested >> theory. Just not enough black candidates of note to really tell. >> >> Or do you mean that the sampling is consistently favoring Obama by 5 >> points? I would find that odd since there are so many firms involved. >> I haven't heard anyone from the Obama campaign saying they expect 5% >> less than polls in the election. Polling is certainly a bit of a black >> art, especially in a year where so many new voters are being >> registered. >> > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Adobe® ColdFusion® 8 software 8 is the most important and dramatic release to date Get the Free Trial http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;207172674;29440083;f Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/message.cfm/messageid:273098 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=11502.10531.5
