Are you referring to the Bradley effect? The idea that people will say publicly that they will vote for the black guy but then not actually do it? I've seen it mentioned but I think its a pretty untested theory. Just not enough black candidates of note to really tell.
Or do you mean that the sampling is consistently favoring Obama by 5 points? I would find that odd since there are so many firms involved. I haven't heard anyone from the Obama campaign saying they expect 5% less than polls in the election. Polling is certainly a bit of a black art, especially in a year where so many new voters are being registered. I think one of the big questions will be whether the newly registered voters show up and vote. If they do, then I think you'll see Obama hit well over 300 electoral votes. If they don't, then it is going to be a squeaker. Most of the polls I see now are likely voters. This election could well be decided by the unlikely voters. Judah On Wed, Oct 8, 2008 at 10:38 AM, Robert Munn <[EMAIL PROTECTED]> wrote: > Have you factored in the polling v. voting discrepancy? Obama's own campaign > thinks he will show 5 points lower than the closing poll numbers, which > essentially makes the race tied. > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Adobe® ColdFusion® 8 software 8 is the most important and dramatic release to date Get the Free Trial http://ad.doubleclick.net/clk;207172674;29440083;f Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/message.cfm/messageid:273089 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=89.70.5
