don't worry, everything will sort itself out once we find a good source of unobtainium. On Jan 13, 2010, at 12:31 PM, Judah McAuley wrote:
> > On Wed, Jan 13, 2010 at 10:00 AM, Gruss Gott <[email protected]> wrote: >> All the algae farms have gone bankrupt, but we better figure out >> something fast because the world's demand for energy is exponentially >> rising while the world's supply is exponentially falling. > > This isn't actually true. World energy demands are growing linearly > and in many places (such as the United States), energy demand is > getting close to flat. > > http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/world.html > > Oregon forecasts to meet something like 80% of the demand created by > increased population in the next 30 years through conservation > measures. Increased efficiency and increased conservation can be > responsible for offsetting the bulk of anticipated population and > business growth in industrial countries for the foreseeable future. > > Of course if we get serious about wanting to get rid of greenhouse gas > producing energy that constitutes a significant portion of our > existing energy infrastructure, we'd have to replace it with > something. There are certainly a lot of challenges ahead. But > exponentially increasing energy demand is not one of them. > > As for developing countries, there is certainly a much larger appetite > for energy consumption there. China seems to be jumping into the fray > and committing itself to not becoming overly dependent on fossil fuels > during its continued growth. I'm not really familiar with what is > going on in India in that respect. > >> And the bad news is the planet's economic growth hinges on one single >> factor: a growing supply of energy. > > You should not take continued growth as an imperative. There are > plenty of economic models that produce a very happy populace without a > rapid increase in GDP. Take a look at Japan's "Lost Decade". GDP > growth was pretty much non-existent, yet personal income, buying power > and quality of life metrics increased. All during a period where, in > the US, GDP continued to increase but per-capita real income > decreased. > >> So one of two things is going to happen: >> >> (1.) Humans devolve into a cold dark world. > > It was not a cold, dark world prior to fossil fuels you know. There > are big challenges ahead, to be sure. Threats of devolution and a cold > dark world do nothing to forward the discussion however. > >> (2.) A new form of energy is invented / discovered and it creates an >> economic boom. >> >> The problem with # 2 is that inventing / discovering new energy >> *takes* energy and if that energy is getting more and more scarce then >> you're in trouble. >> >> Which is why nuclear is so attractive. > > Nuclear power is attractive in a number of ways. I was just discussing > Thorium reactor design with coworkers on Friday as we perused a > nuclear physics book. There are a number of other options as well, > however, and the advances in things like non-polluting dye-based solar > cells really do point to a capacity to replace fossil fuels with a > varied approach to energy production, if we have the political will to > do so. > > There is no need for a doom and gloom scenario. We have options, we > are generating new options all the time. Gains in efficiency and > conservation can keep energy consumption stable and allow us time to > replace outmoded systems without substantial disruption. We just need > to have the will to plug away and continue to make progress. > > Judah > > ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~| Want to reach the ColdFusion community with something they want? Let them know on the House of Fusion mailing lists Archive: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/message.cfm/messageid:310431 Subscription: http://www.houseoffusion.com/groups/cf-community/subscribe.cfm Unsubscribe: http://www.houseoffusion.com/cf_lists/unsubscribe.cfm?user=89.70.5
