You just said the magic words!
"niche market"
Here's the problem. Most people assume (as did I a long time ago) that porting to new
platforms and operating systems was a simple matter of recompiling the binaries, and
BAM! "You've got Software".
However, as this was the way I thought a few years back, I have since had my eyes
opened.
Generally, when we evaluate a new operating system, or distribution, we have to say:
1: How many people are going to buy said product for that platform.
A: How many users have requested it?
B: How many large corporations and businesses are running it?
C: How many existing platform users are likely to purchase a port?
Let's say it breaks down to 100,000 users. Let's say we know of 3 companies
willing to buy the full product of a port. Let's say of those 100,000 users, 30 users
have requested it, and the market shows a "strong interest". We can then assume
(within reason) a sales market of a few HUNDRED. Not thousands of users. Not with an
initial port, and zero market/platform penetration.
Therefore, let's assume 10 companies, 500 users. This is a conservative
estimate...
At say, 700$ break-in price for the base product, we can "assume":
510x700= 357,000$
Now, that can be our initial "money" we would garner from a port. That would be the
ROI (return on investment) for a product.
2: Let's now figure out development costs. Better yet! Let's base this off of porting
to OS/X.
A: Servers/Machines minimum of 6 for development, minimum 6 for QA, minimum 3
for technical support.
At say, 5000$ a piece for each machine, that 75,000$ up front.
B: Integration into the existing environment (IT misc), assume a cost of
200$/hour (salary say) minimum 10 hours. 2000$
C: Training for existing developers, technical support and QA, let's assume
4000$ a class, or misc costs, (not including man hours). Let's just make it an even
20,000 cost. (uber-conservative).
D: Development man hours: let's assume that each engineer is making 30$/hr.
Let's assume that minimum dev time for this is 1 month. Working only weekdays. Let's
assume 4 engineers. (eight hour day) 19,200$
E: QA Man hours... Being a member of QA... well, let's say this estimates are
conservative. Let's just make them the same as the engineers (HAHAHA), 19,200$
[Please note, my math my be screwed up, I'm hopping around between projects]
F: Documentation! Let's just assume another 19,200$ cost.
G: 3rd party licensing. Assume 50,000$ here, just to be safe.
Total for basic Dev/QA: 204,600.
Take the ROI, subtract the Dev cost: 152,400$ left over.
Now, subtract Market training and development. Market research and penetration
research. Sales research and training. Other application integration testing and
design (Flash gateway, dreamweaver, etc). Take into account Support training.
Pretty soon, you're making nothing.
I had to do a lot of this type of research when pushing for added Linux distro
support. As well as BSD and other Unixes support.
Sure, on the outside, the porting process seems pretty easy. Trivial in fact. In
reality, this is a software development firm, and we cannot afford to do anything
half-way.
We can't give everything away and we can't be loose with our release guidelines. For
every single platform support we need a guarantee that our ROI will, if not defraying
the immediate costs, in the long run outweigh the costs of development.
Someone mentioned HP. Yeah. CF runs on HP. You have no idea how much of a nightmare it
is to try to test new-gen software on hardware that is nearly 6 gens behind.
Remember, we also have to pay upkeep, etc. The problem with niche markets, is that
while yes, it would give us some revenue, and it would provide us with more market
penetration, the problem is, will it assist and defray the cost of us developing,
supporting, etc the platform.
Ok, back to more work. Woo.
Jesse Noller
[EMAIL PROTECTED]
Macromedia Server Development
Unix/Linux "special guy"
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Ian Lurie [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
> Sent: Wednesday, July 31, 2002 12:20 PM
> To: CF-Talk
> Subject: RE: X-server?
>
> I don't know about offensive but it seems like Macromedia may be missing
> an
> opportunity here. The X Server is a screaming deal - inexpensive, fast and
> easy to work with. If CF MX worked on it it'd be a great niche market that
> you-know-who would have a hard time penetrating with .Net.
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Cary Gordon [mailto:[EMAIL PROTECTED]]
> Sent: Wednesday, July 31, 2002 9:11 AM
> To: CF-Talk
> Subject: Re: X-server?
>
>
> Speaking for myself, I find this really offensive (the idea of paying a
> Macromedia employee, not you Dick). Between my company and our clients,
> we
> give Macromedia enough money to by a room full of Mac boxes.
>
> Cary
>
> At 07:38 PM 7/29/2002 -0700, you wrote:
> >Well, MM's Unix/Linux "special guy" says he will do an Apache thingie*
> >for for OS X if offered a simple bribe -- an OS Serve box and a 17" flat
> >panel display (I think he should hold out for the 22" studio display)
> >
> >Anyone want to contribute -- I'll pledge $500 towards a bribe!
> >
> >* Note "thingie" is a highly technical C++ programming construct.
> >
> >Dick
>
>
> Cary Gordon
> The Cherry Hill Company
>
>
>
>
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