On Fri, Sep 6, 2019 at 9:54 AM Donna Y <[email protected]> wrote:
> Lets break down the statement “if we could solve problems whose complexity 
> grows exponentially, then EMH would be true.”

That was a colloquial english statement. If you want to treat it as a
mathematical statement you must first gather the axioms which it was
reflecting.

> Computational complexity describes the time or space it takes to run an 
> algorithm.

Yes.

And with simplifying assumptions which only approximate the real world
conditions it's expected to be describing.

For example, when we use O(n) to describe a calculation, we have
usually assumed fixed width arithmetic which usually implies a fixed
ceiling, which would imply O(1) if we wanted to describe that ceiling,
or something like O(n*ln n) if we wanted to allow arbitrary precision
arithmetic (though memory bounds would get us back to O(1), if we
cared about them).

I bring this up to point out that mathematical relevance is tied to
focus of attention.

Skipping back to EMH -- it can be a fancy way of saying "most ideas
are crud". And, when you start bringing in historical examples,
focusing on practical issues, we can often see this playing out. Most
people don't need what we're selling but with sufficient salesmanship
a number of them can be convinced to buy. But, do that enough, and you
start getting backlash from people who realized that what they thought
they were getting was not what they got. This can give us the s-curve
that most people learn about in business school.

But focusing on EMH as the reason for purchase decisions would tend to
miss out on this view of things.

> But maybe we can. A computer algorithm might use brute force to go through 
> all available options. Humans automatically search for a solution that 
> intuitively feels right.

Brute force works within limits. Approximated brute force extends
those limits but starts to carry risks of going wrong. Depending on
how far you push it that risk can become significant. Sometimes though
you don't have any better options.

> If that is the case—EMH is true because it is a tautology.

If it's a tautology, we can ignore it and focus instead on the
underlying axioms (or on whatever else we deem important).

Thanks,

-- 
Raul
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