OK, let me clarify. When I said 'in the ballpark' I was referring only to the supply side of the equation. What I wanted to say was this: the ratio of CCIE's to JNCIE's is about 330:1. That is indisputable. Now I anticipated that some people would argue that I was only looking at the xxIE market, and what about people who weren't quite that good. The problem is the there really is no lesser Juniper cert, so it is difficult to determine just how many beginner or intermediate-level Juniper people there are. So I hypothesized that the ratio of Cisco-trained people (who were not CCIE's) to Juniper people (who were not JNCIE's) would not be that far away from 330:1. Of course, I don't know what the exact number is, but I can't believe it's going to be so different from the CCIE to JNCIE number. It's certainly not going to be 1:1, for example.
And, no, I do not like the dice/monster comparison, because I don't think it provides a good analysis of the demand curve (college econ majors, are you listening?). I would rather look at revenue earned by each company, because I think it represents a more true estimate of the true demand curve. People might say that Juniper really doesn't sell that much, and there really aren't that many buyers of Juniper gear, etc. etc. but on the other hand, according to the latest financial figures, Juniper sold $1billion of gear in the last 12 months, so obviously somebody must like their stuff (for comparison, Cisco sold about $22 billion in the same time frame). I am not sure about something you asked. Are you asking where to find my previous post that I had referred to? It is post 7:3485, on 10/1/01, 10:58PM on this mailing list, entitled RE:Is the CCIE really worth it. I see it right here on my mail client. If you can't access it, maybe I'll just try to forward it to you somehow (email, probably). Funny, on that thread, I didn't even really want to talk about Juniper and the JNCIE, I just mentioned it lightly as an example to prove some other point I was trying to make, and that caused a firestorm of protests. Just like right now. ""Carroll Kong"" wrote in message [EMAIL PROTECTED]">news:[EMAIL PROTECTED]... > I tried searching the group study archives. We are in the CCIE > Lab one, right? Or the CCIE Professional list? Well I tried both to no > avail. > Your logic makes sense given those conditions. However, we are > all making hypotheses based on results from dice.com and others. Some > companies are willing to hire a ccie consultant to do work that a ccna or > ccnp can do. Juniper has far less equipment that most companies have. I > thought Juniper only has the core. Cisco has the core, distribution, and > access points. They also touch on other markets as well. You are > hypothesizing the ratio is around the ball park, but from what I have seen, > there does not seem to be many Juniper projects about. This might lead to > a conclusion that the sample is too small for us to draw statistical > information from it. I am sure if you could sneak in one as a JNCIE, you > could make boatloads of cash. > I know you agree there are more Cisco jobs, but I disagree there > is a disproportionate amount of competition for these jobs. People cry for > CCIEs day in and day out for some jobs, and are somehow "shocked" that they > are not out sleeping in the magic CCIE dispenser ready for you put in a > quarter to get your CCIE. Some are even ludicrous enough to put insulting > offers and rates and are somehow surprised that they get no responses or > they get underqualified people applying. They want them, can't easily find > them. 6500 or so in the whole world, come on, that is certainly not a lot. > Anyway, this is like guessing the stock market because we are > making educated guesses on conditions which are difficult to guage and it > is difficult to predict the future trends. Many people thought a simple > formula like "well, their market cap is less than their book value so they > are a must buy", ended up getting burned because even though their logic > seems to hold, the masses do not go for it and it is not as appealing as it > seems. In this case, it is the "get the JNCIE because there is no one out > there with it". Well, you might get burned if the masses decide they do > not want Juniper in the core and would like to deal with less vendors with > more of an end to end solution or even more other possibilities we did not > even fathom. The way I look at it, you could argue the JNCIE is a "high > risk, growth stock". Sure, but because of that very reason, (I am > conservative), you might want to play it safe with a good long term > buy. Cisco gear is not going to breakdown after a few years of > sunlight. :) However, if you are right, yes, the JNCIE will be far more > profitable for those who get in first. Depends on your goals. > In a way, I guess we agree with each other on some points, but I > do not think there is a disproportionate amount of competition. So > finally, yes, JNCIE will get paid more. You can also get paid $65/hour for > some entry level COBOL jobs. You do not see everyone jumping into > COBOL. (ok they did for y2k, but ignore that. :) ) Getting a job that > requires Juniper experience seems pretty hard to get. You are assuming > people even want Juniper core gear as much as they want Cisco core > gear. Since it is basically a niche market, you are talking bigger bucks > for less skill and less jobs, yes. However, with Cisco skills it is > undoubtely easier to land jobs that will pay a decent amount. > Ultimately, if you were into the CCIE for the exclusive holy high > paying secret rare to be found and used kind of job, yes, JNCIE seems to be > the logical extension as the CCIE is slowly losing some of that flair. The > way I look at it, a cert is a cert. A CCIE cert will certainly give you > credibility as long as you do not have 30,000 within 2 years. :) If that > is what one is looking for, with an elevated above average pay check, stick > with the CCIE. You want to be the kid on the block with the biggest > paycheck, go for the JNCIE. > > At 10:47 AM 10/27/01 -0400, nrf wrote: > > >Now, you might say that the xxIE market is not representative of the entire > >market for skills, and you need to look at everybody who has Cisco/Juniper > >skills (not just xxIE people). Unfortunately Juniper doesn't really have a > >lesser cert like the CCNA/CCNP (the JNCIS is a bit higher than that), but I > >can't imagine that if you counted the number of people with moderate-level > >Cisco skill (i.e. CCxP), and the people with moderate Juniper skills (like a > >JNCNP, if such a thing existed), then I can't believe that it would be very > >much different than the CCIE vs. JNCIE numbers. So I believe the 330:1 > >ratio is pretty much around the ballpark. > > > > So what does that tell you? Sure, there are more Cisco jobs. I have > >never disputed such a thing. But on the other hand, there is also a > >disproportionate amount of competition for those jobs (too much supply) , > >that far outweighs the demand. According to the numbers you brought out, > >there would be 10 times more people competing with you for a Cisco job than > >there would be for a Juniper job. I also must take issue with your > >contention that the CCIE is more valuable in this economy, because the > >salary numbers don't like either. I don't want to sound crass and venal, > >but JNCIE's on average get paid more (sometimes significantly more) than a > >CCIE. For those who will say that it's not certs that count, it's > >experience, OK fine - then let me revise that above sentence to say that > >somebody with a certain amount of skill and experience in Juniper can most > >likely expect to earn more than somebody else with an equivalent amount of > >skill and experience in Cisco. For those who still don't believe me, I say > >"Do the math yourself". It's really as simple as that. > > > > > >You just made a common error - you've only looked at the demand side of the > >equation, which is misleading. Economics dictates that to measure the value > >of anything, you need to be looking at both the supply and the demand. This > >is why being a doctor pays better than manning a cash register, even though > >the demand for cashiers is higher (how many times do you get sick vs. how > >many times do you buy something in a store?) > > > > > >Hey, Brad, I know how you feel, and I sympathize. I know what you're going > >through, because I've been there too. Just maybe 6 months ago, when I > >first started really hearing about how the Juniper might have a better > >router, and how the JNCIE program might be a better indicator of guru > >status, I didn't want to believe it either. I have to admit, I was in a > >state of denial too. But the more I checked out the facts, the more > >incontrovertible they looked. I have twisted this subject around in my head > >many times over and over, and, believe me, I wanted to come up with a > >reasonable scenario where Cisco wins out. But you can only fight it for so > >long. > > > -Carroll Kong Message Posted at: http://www.groupstudy.com/form/read.php?f=7&i=24346&t=24336 -------------------------------------------------- FAQ, list archives, and subscription info: http://www.groupstudy.com/list/cisco.html Report misconduct and Nondisclosure violations to [EMAIL PROTECTED]
