At 12:13 PM 10/27/01 -0400, nrf wrote: >OK, let me clarify. When I said 'in the ballpark' I was referring only to >the supply side of the equation. What I wanted to say was this: the ratio >of CCIE's to JNCIE's is about 330:1. That is indisputable. Now I >anticipated that some people would argue that I was only looking at the xxIE >market, and what about people who weren't quite that good. The problem is >the there really is no lesser Juniper cert, so it is difficult to determine >just how many beginner or intermediate-level Juniper people there are. So I >hypothesized that the ratio of Cisco-trained people (who were not CCIE's) to >Juniper people (who were not JNCIE's) would not be that far away from 330:1. >Of course, I don't know what the exact number is, but I can't believe it's >going to be so different from the CCIE to JNCIE number. It's certainly not >going to be 1:1, for example. > >And, no, I do not like the dice/monster comparison, because I don't think it >provides a good analysis of the demand curve (college econ majors, are you >listening?). I would rather look at revenue earned by each company, because >I think it represents a more true estimate of the true demand curve. People >might say that Juniper really doesn't sell that much, and there really >aren't that many buyers of Juniper gear, etc. etc. but on the other hand, >according to the latest financial figures, Juniper sold $1billion of gear in >the last 12 months, so obviously somebody must like their stuff (for >comparison, Cisco sold about $22 billion in the same time frame). > > >I am not sure about something you asked. Are you asking where to find my >previous post that I had referred to? It is post 7:3485, on 10/1/01, >10:58PM on this mailing list, entitled RE:Is the CCIE really worth it. I >see it right here on my mail client. If you can't access it, maybe I'll >just try to forward it to you somehow (email, probably). > > Funny, on that thread, I didn't even really want to talk about Juniper and >the JNCIE, I just mentioned it lightly as an example to prove some other >point I was trying to make, and that caused a firestorm of protests. Just >like right now.
For starters, I am not necessarily siding for Cisco or for Juniper. Just trying to debunk any possible misconceptions. A lot of what you are saying is sensible. I think some things are a bit flawed. No, I do not agree that it is 330:1. (for all cisco vs juniper) That assumes the target has an even distribution, like given X and Y, they both have an even distribution of people who would want the "high, medium, low" skill sets. The thing is, most low and medium skill sets would not even think Juniper, mainly because there is no Juniper in the low and medium scale components. They have high end gear, which requires, high end skills. What the heck would the equivalent CCNA of a Juniper guy do? Be able to login and logout? Everything else in the core must be far too advanced for a junior. The number, although undeterminable, in my guess would be ridiculously higher for Cisco. The revenue model is somewhat flawed as well. Juniper gear is fairly expensive, you have no idea how many clients bought that much gear, no idea how much each client bought, etc. Now purely as an example: What if their routers cost half a million each? The end result is 200 routers sold. The number of jobs needed to handle that many would not be a lot. That of course is an extreme case, but Juniper does sell expensive gear compared to some Cisco equipment. It goes back to what kind of gear and where. Core gear is going to be few, but expensive. Distribution, medium. Access, a boatload, but cheap. Yeah, just forward me the email, but I think we are similar ground here, just some slight differences. I would protest if anyone said anything which seemed quesitonable, JNCIE, CCIE, MCSE, Engineering, Programming, SysAdmin, Security, etc. This has nothing to do with CCIE self-justification and what not. There is no doubt that a JNCIE will make more money than a CCIE, simple supply and demand dictates that. Now finding a Juniper job easily may or may not be hard. I suppose if they just call Juniper and ask for JNCIEs, yeah, you will probably be hot on their list. But this still depends on the logistics of who the clients are, where they are, how many, etc. If there are very few clients, even with 20 guys, you might never get that call. Like I said before, and I will say it again. If you strongly feel that Juniper's influence will grow a lot more, yes, JNCIE is a good "risk" choice. The potential returns now are enormous. Even though there are no jobs now, if the calls roll in, with 20 guys, you will get that call. This is how some CCIEs I know get their calls, from local Cisco centers. Of course, like nrf said, more competition, but with the Cisco situation, you do not necessarily rely just on the local company centers. The risk being opportunity costs. You might just end up sitting at home or ending up getting some other job waiting for that call. So, it looks like a mixed bag. I agree whole heartedly that the equal experience, and what not, juniper guys will get more. The hard part is getting the jobs now, which right now, at best, we can make educated guesses on the future trends. As for my guess? It does seem like Juniper is growing, and that getting the certification might be very lucrative. I will think about it sometime in the future. -Carroll Kong Message Posted at: http://www.groupstudy.com/form/read.php?f=7&i=24355&t=24336 -------------------------------------------------- FAQ, list archives, and subscription info: http://www.groupstudy.com/list/cisco.html Report misconduct and Nondisclosure violations to [EMAIL PROTECTED]
